Analysis Of The Effect Of International Oil Prices On China's Energy Conservation And Emission Reduction

With the development of China's economy,the process of industrialization and urbanization is accelerating,and the environmental problems caused by excessive energy consumption are becoming more and more obvious.In addition,under the background of"new normal" and "haze",the energy saving and emission reduction policy with the aim of reducing the cost and reducing the pollution emission is still a major strategic direction and energy substitutability in recent years and in the future.So that the international crude oil price fluctuations on consumption and total energy consumption structure have a significant impact,the combination of research and analysis has great value and significance.Based on this,the first part of this paper,1980--2015,China's primary energy consumption and economic data,to build an international energy conservation threshold regression model.In the second part,this paper uses the annual data of WTI crude oil price from 1987 to 2014 as the sample,first uses the path analysis to analyze the influence path and influence mechanism of the change of oil price on the total energy consumption of each variety,and then consider the national energy saving and emission reduction State and divided into two kinds of state scenarios to establish the international oil price on the energy-saving emission reduction SVAR model,in order to analyze the international oil price changes on China's energy consumption and energy-saving emission reduction impact.Results of this study show:(1)the international crude oil prices on the significant impact of carbon dioxide emissions,when the WTI crude oil prices below 25.93 yuan,the international crude oil prices rose 1%,resulting in carbon dioxide emissions rose 24.23%;WTI crude oil prices greater than 25.93 yuan,the international Crude oil prices rose 1%,resulting in carbon dioxide emissions rose 19.89%,crude oil consumption on the positive impact of carbon dioxide emissions weakened.(2)International oil prices through China's macroeconomic impact on China's energy consumption,China's economic development,making China's macroeconomic impact by the international oil prices.In addition,the exchange rate due to the comprehensive impact of its two economies,making the international oil prices directly on the exchange rate is not significant.(3)In the short term,the elasticity of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP is 9.22%and 5.02%respectively.Under the condition of high energy consumption and high emission,the energy consumption per unit of GDP and the elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions are 4.31%and 6.51%,respectively.Under the condition of low energy consumption and low emission,the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emission elasticity per unit GDP are 6.66%and 8.51%respectively.Crude oil prices become an important factor affecting the impact of China's energy-saving emission reduction.(4)In the long term,the impact of international oil price on energy consumption per unit GDP and carbon dioxide in the long run is more significant in the short term,but in the long run,the impact is weak;in the state of high energy consumption and high emissions,the international oil price Energy consumption per unit of GDP and carbon dioxide emissions in the impact of negative impact;low energy consumption and low emissions in the state,the international oil price per unit of GDP energy consumption has a negative impact on the impact of carbon dioxide emissions is not significant.The main factors determining China's energy saving and emission reduction are macroeconomic development and energy consumption.However,the world economy and oil demand are growing rapidly,and the long-term indirect impact of international oil prices can not be ignored.(5)In the "thirteen five" period,China's energy structure optimization,energy types of transformation,in order to achieve energy intelligence,energy efficient cleaning use.