Simulation Research On Risk Management Countermeasures Of China's Tin Ore

Tin ore is China's traditional advantageous minerals,however,due to the disorderly exploitation over the years,the status of tin ore as a dominant mineral species in China is precarious.In 2009,the Ministry of Land and Resources of China promulgated the Provisional Regulations on the Management of Exploration and Exploitation of Certain Minerals for Protective Exploitation,and proposed to carry out "unified planning,total control,rational development,comprehensive utilization" of advantageous minerals including tin ore,by the end of 2016,China has further promulgated the “Specifications for Tin Industry” to make clear provisions for tin mining,improving the environmental protection requirements for mining and strictly control mining.A series of policy measures have shown that our government has attached great importance to tin mining,utilization and maintaining its advantageous position.Thus,it is particularly important to evaluate the supply risk of tin mines to find out the key risk factors that exist and to implement policy governance.This article is based on superior mineral management theory,circular economy theory and supply security theory,through the theoretical research and method application of resource supply risk at home and abroad,combined with the development status of China's tin mineral resources,Selecting Radar Method(BGR-VW)and System Dynamics Method(SD)for supply risk assessment and policy governance of tin ore in China.Firstly,this paper conducts five dimensions evaluation on the market risk,resource risk,recycling,political risk and future supply and demand trends of China's tin mines,discussed that the main risks of China's current tin mines exist in terms of low utilization rate,lack of a recycling system,single supply channels,high external dependence,and large future supply and demand gaps.According to the current development,proposed five regulatory policies.The first option is to increase imports on the basis of existing policies,schemes 2 to 4 gradually increase the recovery rate and control the degree of foreign dependence,option 5 is a comprehensive optimization plan that can significantly increase the level of recycling,reduce external dependence,and increase reserves of reserve resources.In this paper,the SD model is used to simulate the influence of the five schemes on the future supply,demand,external dependence,and recycling volume of the tin mine under the constraints of supply and demand balance,and then produce a supply risk radar map of China's tin mines under various policy options by 2026.By comparing the radar risk map of China's tin mine supply under the conditions of the Programs I and V in 2026,it can be seen that increasing the recycling rate of tin ore resources,reducing the degree of foreign dependence,and enhancing resource exploration can effectively guarantee the supply security of tin resources by implementing international mergers and acquisitions.According to the results of different programs,this paper proposes to encourage the exchange of talents,promote the iteration of technological upgrades,reasonably formulate production-instructive plans to promote industrial upgrading,accelerate the establishment of recycling systems,increase the level of recycling technology,and increase the intensity of domestic investigations,and implement overseas investment and mergers and other policy recommendations.