| The business world has embraced the idea of making future plans to better compete in the market.Helping the decision makers make better decisions by presenting them with necessary information about the market is the most important aspect of decision making.In supply chains,the companies are better equipped with the ability to compete in a flooded market by helping each other grow.This paper focuses on a Malawian company,Macsteel Malawi Limited.This company is part of a three echelon supply chain,the paper looks at how Macsteel can improve on their decision making by advising them on what forecasting methods are more appropriate for them and the paper also takes a look at Bull Whip Effect.This is a risk that is present in almost all supply chains and one of its major causes is forecast updating.The paper will go into detail the use of four forecasting methods 1,ARIMA,2,Holt method,3,Trend linear,4,Moving Average and advise on how and what method is appropriate.It will also look at how these forecasting method affect Bull whip effect,the methods will be analyzed and tested on which forecast method better mitigates the risk of Bull whip.Bull whip effect describes how the distortion of demand information in a supply chain amplifies demand variance as it moves from consumption point up the supply chain to layers of suppliers.Research on Bullwhip effect and its causes have been studied for some time in European countries and Asia but not so much in Africa later alone Malawi.This paper will take ideas from these European and Asian countries research and apply it to Macsteel Malawi.The paper will look at how combined forecast can help Macsteel by improving forecast accuracy.This study will greatly assist Macsteel in making knowledgeable decisions and hence be a better competitor on the market.Finally the research will try and predict in the real future 2017,the results and ideas obtained from the research will act as an input in forecasting the future. |
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