Research On Survival Tree Method And Its Application In The Financial Risk Alarming Study

Survival analysis is an important branch of statistics,which is widely used in many fields of science and social sciences such as medicine and finance.The survival tree method is the frontier research field of survival analysis,which combines traditional survival and CART method,this paper expounds the survival tree method theory,including growth,pruning and preferential principle of the survival tree.Then generate random number to study simulated test,the superiority of the survival tree method to determine the boundary of optimal benign and different punishment coefficient of pruning in the course of the pruning.And use financial indicators of listed companies.Using traditional Cox model analysis,and respectively study the survival tree method to study the industry and real estate listed companies,and through the precision rate and recall rate P/R comparing method.It is concluded that the survival tree model has the following advantages compared to the traditional methods of survival analysis: the distribution of survival data is not made any assumptions;There is no limit to the number of variables that can be studied,and the giant database can be processed.Tree structure is more intuitive which appropriate the actual field such as medicine,finance analysis,the survival tree model prediction accuracy is higher,and has stronger generalization ability.The specific cut-off points of the financial indexes that can distinguish the different financial crisis survival characteristics.Finally,thinking of the conclusions and shortcomings of this paper,the prospect of further research is obtained.