Economic Effects Of Western Sanctions On The Russian Federation

Objective of this study is to examine the socio-economic aspects of the Russian economy development under sanctions,to analyze the macroeconomic indicators and to develop a forecast of their development for the period from 2017 until 2020.The research based on the following methods: analysis and synthesis,logical approach to the assessment of economic phenomena,synergetic model with elements of statistical,r egression and variation methods,empirical questionnaires method and econometric Engle–Granger two-step method.Using the econometric Engle–Granger two-step method to develop and assess econometric dependencies on the key parameters of the economy.The methodology of macroeconomic modeling based on the cointegration analysis: in accordance with the Engle–Granger approach,at the first stage we made a co-factorial dependence,including factors that predetermine long-term trends in the dynamics of the indicator under study.At the second stage,we made a model of correction with regression balances,including the factors deter mining the short-term dynamics of the indicator under study.Using the questionnaires method to seek Russian people responses on the issue under study.In total,our questionnaire included 54 closed ended questions.At the moment,was the total number of surveyed people is 489 people.Using the synergetic model,the control parameters of the socio-economic system were defined and the forecast was made of Russia’s macroeconomic indicators development for the period from 2017 until 2020 under financial and economic crisis.Scientific novelty of this research is the development of scientifically grounded theoretical positions and practical recommendations in the field of analysis and forecast of macroeconomic indicators of Russia’s socio-economic development for the period from 2017 until 2020.Practical value of the research: managers at all levels are offered tools for conducting factor analysis,the development of medium-and long-term forecasts of business activities,that will minimize the risks when making managerial decisions under current economic conditions.