A Study On The Economic Growth And Fluctuation Effect Of Local Government ’s Debt Behavior

Since the reform and opening up,China has experienced more than 30 years of rapid economic growth period,at the same time,the rapid growth of local debt scale is also accompanied by the shadow.In the near future,although the growing local debt problems are becoming increasingly prominent,but the scale of local debt is still in excess of GDP growth in the expansion,but China’s economic growth rate is gradually slowing down,and become the focus of attention of the whole society.Based on this,the paper makes an in-depth evaluation of the economic growth effect of local government borrowing behavior by putting the urbanization level,the fiscal centralization and the performance appraisal system into the same overall analysis framework.The study found that local debt did affect economic growth.It should also be noted that the level of urbanization has a positive impact on the economic growth effect of local debt,and this effect is stronger with the passage of time,but gradually weakened with the performance appraisal mechanism.In addition,although the performance appraisal system is conducive to regional economic growth,but there is a negative impact that the performance appraisal system on the local government debt growth effecting of economic growth.At the same time,because the fiscal centralization is likely to lead to the inefficient allocation of local debt for urbanization,the positive effect of urbanization on the economic growth effect of local government debt behavior will be restrained by fiscal centralization.However,the interaction between fiscal centralization and performance assessment has a significant positive impact on the economic growth effect of local debt.Secondly,after reevaluating the effect of local debt on economic growth,the paper discusses the influence of local debt on economic fluctuation and the influence of land finance and political cycle on the channel.Found that: It is the main causes for the local economic fluctuations to the local government debt financing to promote.And the land finance has a positive effect on the transmission effect of the investment fluctuation channel.At the same time,The feature of the expansion of local debt has a political cycle also affects the stability of the regional economic environment.Finally,based on the above conclusions,this paper makes some suggestions onthe debt behavior of local governments.