Analysis Of The Influencing Factors Of The Concession Period Of The Hybrid Financing PPP Project Based On Bayesian Network

It is an important measure to deepen the reform of China's public service sector to promote the cooperation of governments and social capitals(Public Private Partnership,PPP)in the field of infrastructure construction,to enhance the efficiency and quality of public service construction.The Ministry of Finance has issued some documents about the interim procedures and operation guides for the financial management of PPP projects,which has provided a guarantee for further promoting the application and popularization of hybrid financing models in domestic public service projects.PPP projects have more focus points,one of the key issues is how to determine the concession period of hybrid financing projects.As a result of the natural environment,policies and regulations,economic environment and other uncertainties,those factors lead to infrastructure projects facing various risks,the direct result of project is cost overrun or delayed delivery.In this paper,we analyze the uncertainties that affect the income and expenditure of the PPP projects,and establish the HFPPP concession model based on Bayesian network,and give the reasoning calculation and analysis process of the model.The main research works are summarized as follows:(1)The paper reviews the research focus on the PPP project and the research status of the PPP project,and describes the conception and influencing factors of the project franchising period under the hybrid finance PPP model.The income level of the traffic project concession period is determined by the traffic volume and the toll price,while the expenditure is mainly affected by the material price and the labor cost.(2)The paper improves the Bayesian network model and redefines the concept of the Bayesian network structure of infrastructure projects.The uncertain factors influencing the project concession period are introduced into the Bayesian network model node.At the same time,the modeling process of the Bayesian network in HFPPP project concession period is also described.(3)In the modeling process,the probability reasoning algorithm and the net present value method of Bayesian network are introduced.At the same time,the life cycle of PPP project is divided into different stages to analyze.In pace with the change of economic development level and price level,the operating net present value of the income and expenditure is analyzed accordingly.Under the premise of the project in line with project feasibility and maximize the benefits,and determine the best concession period of time span.(4)A case study of an expressway project using the HFPPP project concession Bayesian network model is carried out to validate the feasibility and validity of the HFPPP project concession model based on Bayesian network.Through the above research,the combination of Bayesian network and cash flow NPV method can quantitatively predict the probability of the interaction of different influencing factors in HFPPP project concession period.Under the premise of satisfying the project feasibility,the maximize probability of the portfolio in concession and NPV Standards can meet the basic requirements of the project continued operation,so the two sides can use the most advantageous way to carry out hybrid PPP project investment management,on this basis,to calculate a reasonable franchise period.When the units of the project life cycle tend to shrink,the forecast will become more accurate.