Study On The Asymmetric Effects Of Monetary Policy On Stock Market In China

The healthy development of capital market is crucial to the long-term development of national economy.The construction of capital market in our country started relatively late,but the development speed is quite fast.90 s at the beginning of last century,China has set up the Shanghai stock exchange and Shenzhen stock exchange,the total market value of China’s securities market has expanded tens of thousands of times,from the beginning of 1 billion 200 million,developed by the end of 2015,the total market value of the Shanghai and Shenzhen two City has reached a staggering 53 trillion.However,in addition to the alarming pace of development,we should also pay attention to the problems in the development process of the stock market,for example,a strong speculative atmosphere,affected by the policy,the volatility is more intense,etc..Recalling the trend of China’s stock market over the years,we can find that China’s stock market is one of the major characteristics of cattle short bear long,to a large extent,the performance of the "capital city" and "policy market" characteristics.From the beginning of the establishment of China’s stock market,with a deep brand,with the non tradable share reform in 2005,China’s financial supervision system and the market is developing gradually perfect,but the development of China’s capital market is still in the early stage,the distance from the building as a mature capital market still has a long way to go.The impact of monetary policy on the stock market has always been the focus of financial market research,the results are quite rich.In recent years,the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on the stock market has become a major direction in the field of research.On the monetary policy transmission process in the influence and the study way and degree of the stock market,is conducive to the formulation and implementation of monetary policy more in nature,has important significance on macroeconomic regulation and control and the stability of the capital market.In this paper,the results of previous studies based on the excellent theory,analyzes the conduction mechanism of monetary policy in the stock market,and analysis the variables of monetary policy impact on the stock market and influence mechanism,expounds the causes and try to influence monetary policy on the stock market asymmetric;then based on the reality of China stock the market,from July 2007 to July 2014 monthly data as the study sample,and divides it into two stages of bull market and bear market;through the construction of the money supply,interest rate,SVAR model between bank credit and stock price index,using the quantitative analysis method of the stock market in different market situations,money supply and the interest rate,bank credit and stock market price relations,draws the conclusion:(1)whether the stock market is in a period of prosperity also During the downturn,there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between bank credit,money supply M2,interest rate and stock price.(2)the stock market boom,money supply and bank credit is the Grainger reason of Shanghai;the stock market downturn,the interest rate is the Grainger reason of Shanghai Composite Index,the relationship between the bank credit and the Shanghai index reciprocal causation.(3)in the different situation of the stock market,bank credit,money supply and interest rate have obvious asymmetric effects on stock index.In the stock market boom,the impact of money supply on the stock market prices,bank credit also has a certain role in promoting the stock price,but the interest rate is very small;in the stock market downturn,the impact of interest rates on the stock market,bank credit still has impact on the stock market price,and the relative effect in the bull market and more.The money supply was not affected.Finally,according to the conclusions of the study,the paper puts forward some policy recommendations.