An Analysis Of The Market Timing Of Z Funds Based On The Peak Characteristics Of A Share

Over the past 20 years, The stock market index of our country fluctuates greatly, the performance of public fund investors in stock market fluctuates greatly, the performance of public fund is due to lack of timing ability. Therefore, Establishing a reasonable index system to evaluate the timing ability of the cemetery fund can boost the stable performance of the fund, and then stabilize the stock market volatility index.Up to now, judging the timing ability of the cemetery fund remains a worldwide financial problem.At present, the research on the index system of fund timing capability adopts the method of parameter test, and the premise of this method is too much, and such analysis parameter test model covers the market timing and stock selection ability,market timing stock selection ability is negatively correlated, The fund evaluation result based on this model is not good. This paper tries to use the nonparametric test to analyze the timing ability of funds, construct the index system as the main indicator of the price to value ratio, including the basic characteristics of bull market indicators .Examines the timing performance of the Z fund in the non routine phase of the capital market. According to the Shenzhen A stock market data as the research object, including the 2007 and the 2015 in bull market peak rate valuation indicators.Through data analysis, the two bull market peaked at a serious level, and the 2015 bull market bubble was even more bullish than the 2007 bull market. The proportion of shareholding in financial capital has gradually increased. Both industrial capital and financial capital have the characteristics of "high throw" and "low buy", and the investment behavior of the two capital forces is related to the stock price. The discount rate of closed-end fund is related to the fluctuation of capital market. When the absolute value of the closed-end fund is high, the capital market is in a bull market.When the absolute value of the discount rate is low, the capital market is in a bear market. The choice of stock fund Z fund to analyze the timing ability, the prediction conclusion index system to test the Z fund timing ability, analysis that the fund’s investment style is more aggressive, risk control ability is poor, the funds that show weak professional level.The main innovation of this article is to construct the index system centering on the price to value ratio to predict the basic characteristics of the non daily stage of the stock market. The main contributions of this paper are as follows: calculating the data value of the two bull market peaks; using data to test the timing ability of Z fund.