Study On The Underwriting Cycle Of Car Insurance And Its Influencing Factors In China

The underwriting period refers to a periodical change of insurance underwriting capacity and underwriting profit.This kind of change has two different performance:in a strong market,there are a higher premium rate,less claim loss,a more strict relevant insurance clauses,a relatively higher profit rate of the insurance company,and good operating benefit of the company;But in the weak market,there are less underwriting profit,and even losses.The underwriting cycle is a significant feature of non-life insurance market,which is widely recognized in the international market.At present,the car insurance business accounts for about 70%of the total business.Under such situation,to improve the stability of property-casualty insurance company,it's necessary to master the fluctuation rule of the insurance market of China,to take the relevant measures for cisplatin business and conversion period regulation,and to reduce the volatility of property-casualty insurance company.In addition,there is a mature theoretical system of the research methods and the theory of the underwriting cycle abroad.However,the domestic research started later.There is a small amount of articles on the insurance cycle of motor vehicle insurance.This paper studies the emergence and influencing factors of the market underwriting cycle of motor car insurance in China,by combing the relevant literature at home and abroad,and on the basis of previous studies to adopt a suitable method.To test of the existence of underwriting cycle and the length measurement,this paper takes the payout ratio data of car insurance in 1984 as the research sample,and adopts the HP filtering method to eliminate the trend components,and then observes and analyzes the periodic composition.The study finds that the car insurance market in China has a clear underwriting cycle.The car insurance market in China has experienced six underwriting cycles from 1984 to 2015 with different cycle length,and the average length is 5.17 years.To analyze the underwrirting cycle,this paper uses the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.The qualitative analysis mainly analyzes the internal business links and macroeconomic environment of insurance industry.The quantitative analysis part selects six variables to establish the VAR model,and then analyze the impact of each variable on the insurance market insurance market in China through the impulse response function and variance decomposition function.The main conclusion is:the underwriting cycle of car insurance is mainly affected by the number of property-casualty insurance company and the loss ratio of car insurance.In a short term,the impact of payout ratio on the underwriting cycle is the biggest,and as time goes on,its impact of payout ration will be reduced.The influence direction is positive first,and then negative.And it has been verified that in our special market environment,market access restrictions have a significant impact on the underwriting cycle of car insurance.In addition,the role of automobile production on the underwriting cycle can not be ignored,which is also the innovation of this paper.Finally,this paper puts forward some suggestions for insurance companies and regulatory agencies to achieve cisplatin management and conversion period regulation,and promote the stable and healthy development of motor vehicle insurance market,even the whole insurance market in China.