Research On Profitability Evaluation And Prediction Of Listed Generation Companies Based On Big Data

As the foundation of national economy growth,electric generation industry plays a vital role in the development of economy and society.The Promulgate of NO.9 and the implementation of supporting policies of new electric reform have witnessed the developing process of marketization in electric industry.Af ter bringing in the competition in marketing electricity side,electric generation enterprises have been faced with the unprecedented opportunities and challenges.Electric enterprises will participate in the market competition in the future situation.Since the level of the profitability is the key of market share,it's the developing demand that urge the enterprises to improve it.Thus,it's vital to provide strong basis for the decision of electric enterprises by evaluating and predicting the profitability.Choosing the power generation enterprises as the research object,this paper applied the relevant mathematical model to evaluate and predict the profitability of the listed companies,guiding management decisions with calculating the comprehensive profitability index and tracking back to analyze its influence factors.Firstly,this paper determined the basic idea and framework through summarizing the development and resent researches of domestic and foreign counties from three aspects: generation industry,evaluation and forecast of profitability.Then,after learning from the theoretical research of profitability evaluation and prediction,this paper puts forward the theory and method of applied mathematical model.Based on the empirical analysis,the c ore of this paper,this paper analyzed the development of listed electricity generation companies and selected 9 representative and important quantitative indicators to construct evaluation index system.Then,this paper collected and compared annual and q uarterly index data of 60 listed electric generation companies in 2011 to 2016,discussing the special performance and developing trends of profitability from horizontal and vertical in three categories: molecular industry,asset scale and capital structur e.Since the simple financial analysis cannot reflect the level of comprehensive profitability,after the preliminary analysis,this paper choose financial evaluation indicators of listed generation companies from 2011 to 2015 for synthetically evaluation.As it comes to panel data,this paper combined the factor analysis with Topsis(short for Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution)evaluation model to calculate the profitability index score and rank order of listed enterprises duri ng 2011-2015.Based on the results,this paper analyzed the performance of profitability of different molecular industry and offered some suggestions for improving the level of profitability.Due to the change of market environment,electricity generation companies will face with obstacles that have never seen.Learning from the past is in order to guide the future.This paper treats the comprehensive profitability index as the predict object,combined the regression model with support vector machine model.Based on the evaluation results of factor analysis,It applies to an example for predict the change of comprehensive profitability index to prove the feasibility of this prediction model.In the example,this paper analyzed the might impact on the furcating indictors to predict the change in the coming future,offering several suggestions and a new method for the management to make decisions.