Research On Early Stage Risk Management Of Wind Power Project Based On Fuzzy Theory

Wind power is one of the main forms of wind energy utilization,the global wind energy reserves of about 2.74 × 1012 kilowatts of wind power and solar energy,biomass and other renewable energy power generation operation,technology is more mature,lower cost,lower construction costs,environmental impact,And in the global carbon emissions to make a positive contribution to China's wind energy resources are very rich,the domestic land on the wind power reserves of about 253 million kilowatts,with great potential for development and value.However,due to the current development and construction of wind power projects there are many problems,some of which seriously hampered the sustainable development of China's wind power industry.And the wind power industry perspective on the risk of risk analysis and evaluation of the project.Wind energy is a typical clean energy source,and in the twenty-first century the increasingly tense energy supply,the world is increasingly concerned.Compared with the traditional fossil energy,wind energy because of its renewable and non-polluting advantages,has great potential for development.Wind power can not only save coal,oil,natural gas and other fossil fuels,improve the structure of energy also plays an important role.At present,the wind power industry has developed rapidly,the technology has no very large restrictions.The commercial operation of the wind farm project is becoming more and more mature.At present,in the global context,the wind power industry has maintained a high growth rate.From the wind power installed capacity,the United States,Europe,the development of wind power industry.In recent years,the rapid development of China's wind power industry,wind power installed capacity has become the forefront of the world.Next,the proportion of wind energy in energy will gradually increase,becoming an important source of energy for mankind.In this paper,a wind power project in northeast China and a wind power project in the northwest as a case of empirical analysis,the two regions of the wind is rich in resources,project feasibility study,unit selection,construction process has its particularity,according to two forms of project and election Secondly,the wind resource assessment work,based on wind energy data measurement,according to the assessment of wind energy resources,determine the model combined with the observer to determine the unit to measure the power of the unit,the final combination of project investment,comprehensive engineering geology,the use of fuzzy Theoretical and expert opinion risk assessment methods and risk assessment methods based on the dynamic breakeven line of the two wind power projects were evaluated earlier risk.Wind power project pre-work procedures are very complex,the risk of diverse.In this paper,the construction process and the various stages of the wind power project will be divided into milestones.According to the tasks and contents of each stage,the risk of wind power project will be identified,the risk level will be determined quantitatively,and the risk assessment index and evaluation model of wind power project will be constructed.A decision model is established based on the risk tolerance of the project(with the goal of obtaining the best possible economic benefits from the lowest input).In the aspect of risk strategy formulation,we will take into account the relevant policies and regulations of the state,the macroeconomic situation,the macroeconomic and market situation of the project where the project is located,and coordinate the scientific and rational development of wind power project development tasks and implementation plan,optimize the wind power investment timing,,The final work of the wind power to disperse and avoid the risk.