Based On Time Series Analysis Of N Company Surrender Rate And Related Countermeasures

With the constant improvement of the domestic residents' disposable income,the domestic life insurance industry has been the rapid developed.The insurance industry in 2016 the total assets of 12.4 trillion RMB,25.2%increase over the same period of last year,2017 of the premium income of 1.74 trillion RMB,more than the previous year increased by 31.72%.After high-speed development of domestic life insurance companies to approach the international general surrender rate of alert level.In 2015 only a few listed the surrender value of insurance company is 202.8 billion RMB,increased 9%year-on-year,Pingan surrender gold rose 62.7%.The current very high surrender rate and the life insurance industry rapid development phase.If voluntary deposits,withdrawals from time to time,so a voluntary insurance cases,the loan can also be to decide on their own.Surrender to policy-holder,life insurance companies will have a big influence.Surrender will affect the life insurance company's cash flow,the margin pressure,will make the ability to pay has fallen extremely serious.High surrender rate of life insurance industry reputation,also can hit from a large imageBased the N company's actual situation,through a large number of data analysis,based on time sequence to build the CSI 300 index,the balance of 7 Yuebao,surrender rate several indexes base on regression analysis,it is concluded that the stock market has a great influence on short-term volatility for surrender rate,balance 7 Yuebao of fixed-income products such as treasure in the conclusion of long-term influential to surrender.At the same time,relying on the relevant financial information to build capital chain index,and the increase in loan for life insurance companies supporting the larger impact on capital flows,it is concluded that the stock market volatility in the short term effect surrender rate,the influence of the Yuebao in the long run.Combined with the actual situation of the current industry and N company analysis and summarized to improve the product structure,improve the service management,reasonable solutions available for operation such as a variety of business model.