Quantitative Research On The Impact Of Macroeconomic Factors On Periodic Company Discount Rate In Valuation

2Cyclical industry is a kind of industry which is greatly influenced bymacroeconomic factors,it usually follows the expansion and contraction of macro economic activities to show the characteristics of a cyclical cycle.With the task of promoting the reform of mixed ownership,valuation of the cyclical company is increasing,the reasonableness and accuracy of the valuation also be put forward higher requirements.The income method is one of the most important methods of enterprise value evaluation,the accurate estimation of the discount rate is an important prerequisite for the realization of fair evaluation.For the cyclical industry enterprise value evaluation,if we can modify the parameter of discount rate with the background of macroeconomic factors,we can improve the accuracy of the evaluation conclusion.In light of literature from the whole world,the researches between the macroeconomic factors and the discount rate of cyclical industry are rare,and many studies have focused on the analysis of the function and the relationship between the two from the qualitative level,and less from the quantitative aspects of in-depth exploration.Based on this,this paper mainly adopts the method which combining theoretical analysis and empirical mathematical modeling.First of all,this thesis starts from the perspective of qualitative analysis to show which macroeconomic factors affect the cyclical industry discount rate and how to influence it.Picking up economic growth,the average income level of the market,monetary policy,inflation,interest rate structure,exchange rate changes and other macroeconomic factors as cyclical industry factors that affecting the discount rate.Secondly,based on the monthly data from 2006 to 2016,this thesis takes the four industries “banks,non-ferrous metals,iron and steel,petrochemical industry” as examples.Picking up the growth rate,the Dow Jones Chinese index rate of return,the broad money supply growth rate,inflation rate,short and long term interest rate,the RMB against the U.S.dollar exchange rate to measure the six macroeconomic factors.After the unit root test and co-integration test of the cyclical industry discount rate and macroeconomic factors in each of the 4 sample industries,we got that there has a long-term equilibrium relationship between the macroeconomic factors and the discount rate of the cyclical industry in 4 samples.Then,by using the step-wise regression method,we obtained the relationship model between the macroeconomic factors and the discount rate of the cyclical industry in 4 samples.The results indicate that:(1)In the cyclical industry,the discount rate and the average income level of the market have a significant positive correlation,which also affected the economic movement and impact with the whole market;(2)Economic growth and money supply policy have negative effects on the discount rate of the cyclical industry,the market average level of income,inflation and interest rate structure the cyclical industry have positive effects on the discount rate of the cyclical industry,and the exchange rate factor has no significant effect on the discount rate of the cyclical industry;(3)Macroeconomic factors have an impact on the discount rateof the cyclical industry,but the impact elasticity is very small.Based on the above research conclusions,the thesis puts forward the revised ideas of the discount rate of the cyclical industry,and makes a further study.