Evolutionary Process And Development Forecasting Of Chinese Manufacturing Industry

The development of the secondary industry is a prerequisite for the first and the third industry. As the second industry, manufacturing industry is a backbone of a country and plays an indispensable role in regional economic development. In 2010, the proportion of the Chinese manufacturing industry in the global manufacturing industry is 19.8%, about 19.4%higher than American, being the largest manufacturing in the world.The manufacturing of China has got an outstanding achieving, but we also realized that there are many problems need to be solved. It is imperative for our country to implement industry promotion,occupy a more favorable position in the international labor division.Firstly,on the basis of defining the related concepts of manufacturing evolution,this paper gives an analysis about features and variation trend of Chinese manufacturing evolution from two aspects: the added value of manufacturing in the share of GDP and The internal structure of each share.Secondly,this paper analyzes the influence factors of manufacturing industry evolution from the four aspects of demand and supply, technological progress, institutional strategies and global segment. On the base on using a large amount of data to illustrate the influence of manufacturing evolution progress simply,it proposes a more effective policy in an all-round way.Thirdly, in the Takens theorem basis, using the differential evolution algorithm support vector machine model of China’s manufacturing industry added value and the manufacturing value added accounted for the proportion of GDP was predicted based on, this method can effectively avoid the problem based on previous manufacturing prediction in multidimensional space can not be calculated and parameters, the manufacturing industry in China value added manufacturing evolution trend and increasing added value accounted for the proportion of GDP will reach the upper limit of conclusion in the next ten years. At the same time, based on the related theories component data, using the method of composition data forecast to predict the internal structure of China’s manufacturing industry, the manufacturing industry of our country resource industry and low technology industry upgrading speed, the larger development space in the technology industry upgrading is not enough and high technology industry conclusion.Finally, the prediction results affect the evolution process, the manufacturing industry of our country in the evolution process of factors and evolution based on the trend, and puts forward some countermeasures for promoting the orderly evolution of the manufacturing industry of our country, the specific strategies are clearly manufacturing industry development goals, control of manufacturing sector in the national economy, pay attention to the internal structure of the manufacturing sector, optimization improve manufacturing related policy and attach importance to the role of FDI in the manufacturing industry of our country effect, in order to promote the evolution of China’s manufacturing industry to better and more advanced provides theoretical reference and practical guide.