Research On The Contracted Volume Of Agricultural Products Enterprises Under The Uncertainty Of Quantity And Quality

The contract-farming not only effectively solves the contradiction between small production and big market,but also ensures that agricultural enterprises obtain stable source of raw materials with low transaction costs and appropriate prices.Then it has received a wide range of promotion in our country.However,in the actual operation of contract-farming,the frequent occurrence of agricultural natural disasters and opportunistic behavior of farmers result in uncertain supply of agricultural products'quantity and quality.The unstable supply of agricultural products leads enterprises'supply of raw materials can not be effectively guaranteed,brings greater economic losses to enterprises,thereby affects the enthusiasm of enterprises engaged in contract-farming,which is detrimental to the development of agricultural industrialization in China.At present,most scholars have researched on the retailer's ordering strategy under uncertain supply,but most of them only considered the supply uncertainty of quantity or quality,lacking of consideration of both quantity and quality uncertainty,In the light of the problem that the supply of agricultural products quantity and quality are uncertain in the "company&farmers" contract-farming supply chain,from the perspective of agricultural enterprises,the paper researches on the problem of enterprises' optimal contracted quantity.First of all,based on the statistic analysis on the agricultural products supply uncertainty data,the decision model of the enterprises contracted quantity is established under the agricultural products quantity and quality uncertainty.The model takes the expected profit maximization as the objective function and the contracted quantity as the decision variable.The objective function considers agricultural products sales revenue,purchasing cost,processing cost,storage cost,shortage cost and surplus inventory value.Secondly,according to the model's characteristics of the nonlinear continuous differentiability,the paper adopts the bisection method to solve the first order optimality condition of the model.Thirdly,combined with the actual operation of the agricultural enterprise in Yunnan,a numerical example is given to verify the validity of the model and algorithm,and the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters is carried out.Finally,in order to reveal the influence mechanism of supply quantity and quality uncertainty on the contracted quantity of enterprises,the paper makes a comparative analysis of the optimal contracted quantity and the expected profit of the enterprises under the three supply situations,the three supply situations are as follows:the uncertainty of both supply quantity and quality,only considering the uncertainty of supply quantity and only considering the uncertainty of supply quality.The conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The agricultural enterprises contracted quantity model that considering the uncertainty of both supply quantity and quality can better describe the actual operation situation of the agricultural enterprises than contracted quantity model under only considering one uncertain supply condition;(2)In the case of the supply uncertainty of agricultural products' quantity and quality,the total contracted quantity of agricultural enterprises is larger than the expected value of market demand,and with the increasing of the agricultural products supply rate,the total contracted quantity is decreased;(3)The influences of the perfect quality agricultural products parameters changing on the contracted quantity and expected profit are greater than that of the imperfect quality agricultural products;(4)The total optimal contracted quantity is tended to rise with the increasing of the agricultural products demand,the unit selling price,the unit shortage cost,the unit surplus inventory value,and decrease with the increasing of the agricultural products supply rate,the unit finished products rate,the unit purchasing cost,the unit processing cost,and the unit storage cost respectively;(5)The expected profit is added with the increasing of the agricultural products demand,the unit finished products rate,the unit selling price,the unit surplus inventory value,and reduced with the increasing of the imperfect quality agricultural products supply rate,the unit shortage cost,the unit purchasing cost,the unit processing cost,and the unit storage cost respectively;(6)For the agricultural products with the same quality level,the supply rate and the processing cost are more important than the other parameters to the contracted quantity and the expected profit.The research in this paper makes up the shortage of related studies of the existing contracted quantity problem,it helps enterprises to determine the optimal contracted quantity,reduces the enterprises' potential risk of loss,improves the stability of the contract-farming supply chain,and promotes the development of agricultural industrialization.