Empirical Research On The Contagion Of International Financial Crisis To China's Export Trade

In the trend of economic globalization, the economic exchanges between countries are getting closer, and the dependence between each other becomes stronger. With the increasing degree of reform and opening, China has gradually developed into export-oriented foreign trade economy, so the development of export trade is more and more affected and restricted by the external environment. The US subprime mortgage crisis which swept the world and the following European debt crisis caused great damage to the stability of the global trade environment and made the export trade enterprises in our country suffer heavy losses, in a consequence the export trade of our country appeared the cliff type decline. So how did a country's financial crisis affect the foreign trade of its trading partners? What is the hidden infection mechanism? And what measures should be taken to prevent the financial crisis and improve the ability to resist it? This paper tries to answer these questions on the basis of combing the relevant theories of financial crisis contagion and export trade.This dissertation is titled on Empirical Research on the Contagion of International Financial Crisis to China's Export Trade, under which I analyze the outbreak roots and the contagion mechanism of the subprime mortgage crisis and the European debt crisis combined with the characteristics of China's export trade. And the direct impacts of the two financial crises on China's export trade were reflected in the reduction of foreign trade demand and the loss of China's export price advantage. Therefore, in order to verify the existence of the income effect and price effect of the financial crisis, this paper constructs a vector autoregressive model and makes an empirical study by using parameter estimation analysis, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis. The analysis shows that since the competitive advantage of China's processing trade mainly comes from low cost and low price manufactured goods, the stability of export trade depends largely on the international market demand, and the outbreak of the financial crisis often led to a decline in market demand. Besides the spread of the financial crisis will increase the relative price of China's export commodities in the international market through the exchange rate mechanism, which will cause the decline of China's foreign trade demand.At present, it is the crucial period for China's economic transformation, optimizing export trade structure and improving the competitiveness of export commodities are of great significance for ensuring steady and orderly development of our economy.According to the characteristics of China's export trade and the new changes of foreign trade environment, the sixth chapter puts forward specific suggestions for the government departments to strengthen the ability of China's export trade to resist financial crisis on accelerating the transformation of foreign trade development mode,optimizing the trade structure, adjusting trade policy, promoting the balanced development of import and export trade and establishing a stable and effective RMB exchange rate regime.