Over the past thirty years of reform and development,China’s economy has undergone tremendous changes,the living standard of the people is continuously improving,followed by the renewal and change of people’s housing concept.Since 1998,China has officially cancelled the welfare distribution system,housing is gradually being transformed from a welfare treatment into a commodity,while the commodity residential market emerges as the times require.After years of development,the real estate industry has gradually become a pillar industry in China,the annual sales can reach one trillions.However in the real estate market behind the rapid development,there are more and more problems exposed,one of the most important concerns is the high price of commercial housing.Relevant state departments for commercial housing prices too high,the introduction of macro-control policies,trying to stabilize commodity housing prices within a reasonable range,but overall little success.Therefore,how to alleviate the excessive rise in commercial housing prices,and stabilize commodity housing prices in a reasonable range,become the focus of attention of scholars and government departments concerned.On the basis of combing the domestic and foreign literatures about the housing price,this paper sets the research area as the main city of Changchun,based on the related data of 2003-2014 years,the paper studies the current situation of Changchun commodity housing market and the price of commercial housing,and determines the influencing factors.This paper first qualitatively analyzes the current situation of Changchun commercial housing market,and determines the scope of influencing factors according to the characteristics of the city.Using the Granger causality analysis model in statistical analysis,the quantitative analysis of the influencing factors has been carried out,Find out the factors that really affect the price of commercial housing in Changchun.On this basis,we use the grey relational analysis model to make a further analysis of the factors that influence the price of commercial housing,explore the impact of various factors on the impact of commercial housing prices.This paper draws the following conclusions:(1)Changchun commodity housing market in recent years maintained a good upward trend,prices steadily rising,supply continued to grow.(2)According to the formation mechanism of commercial housing prices,combined with the actual situation of Changchun,we can find that there are seven main factors affecting the price of commercial housing in Changchun,They are the selling price of residential land,total urban GDP,per capita disposable income,urban population,real estate investment,commercial housing construction area,and loan interest rates for more than five years.(3)Through the ADF test and the Granger causality model,the seven types of influencing factors were studied,the results show that the real Changchun residential prices are related to the total urban GDP,commercial housing construction area and loan interest rates for more than five years.(4)Further study with grey relational analysis model,the result shows that the most influential factor of commercial housing price in Changchun is the total amount of urban GDP,the degree of Association reached 0.9321;followed by more than five years of lending rates,the degree of Association reached 0.8699;the smallest impact is the commercial housing construction area,the correlation degree was 0.6293.According to the above research results,combining with the development of Changchun real estate market,this paper argues that the land transfer system should be improved,strengthening the macro-control of residential land price,Clear residential property residential property,improve the types of investment products,the establishment of a good order in the real estate market and the expansion of the new type of housing,low rent housing and affordable housing are necessary measures to ensure the smooth and orderly development of Changchun’s commodity residential city. |