The Build Of China's Financial Risk Warning Model And Empirical Analysis

Since 1980 s,With the development of global economic integration and liberalization,modern financial sectors have become the core of society.And that,the financial risks have turned to be many governments' major problems,so did the developed countries.Under the open policy conditions,as the financial activities become more flexible,the financial innovation more complex,the world are more uncertain resulting that the financial risks are rising day by Day.The financial risk will evolve into financial crisis when they accumulated to a certain extent.If that,it would not only cause the global economic recession,also social crisis or even political crisis.In 2007,the out breaks of the U.S.mortgage crisis triggered the global financial crisis and world economic recession,so far,the world economy hasn't seen real signs of recovery.Facing the increasingly destructive power of the financial crisis,financial crisis of potential state-financial systemic risk is increasingly becoming governments,international financial organizations and academic focus.As a developing country in reform and opening,China's economy and financial system are facing increasing uncertainty.Paying attention to the current financial systematic risk of China,knowing the characteristics of China's financial systemic risk,establishing China's financial systemic risk early warning,monitoring and Prevention system in China,are important for preventing the out breaks of systemic financial crisis in China.On the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign financial risk early warning research summary,Choose the KLR signal early warning method based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and the RCVa regression analysis based on principal component,and use RCVa regression analysis to verify whether the subjective analysis is correct.Using the data of 1997-2015 in 20 years,this paper makes an empirical study on the new warning index model.Principal component RCVa regression analysis method based on processing the index data of previously selected,principal component analysis with SPSS17.0,then the Shanghai index returns the RCVa measurement,will get from 1997-2015 RCVa as the dependent variable,the principal components as independent variables by EVIEWS7.2 regression analysis,and the forecasting of China's 2017 financial risk index smoothing method.Finally,put forward the corresponding suggestions on China's financial risk monitoring and prevention,including raising awareness of financial risk deeply,strengthen financial risk monitoring,establish timely monitoring and rectification mechanism,to establish a flexible and efficient,with China's national conditions of the early warning information system etc.