Risk Identification And Risk Management Of Loan Guarantee Circle

Circle of guarantee loans,a kind of loan product,is regarded as the business innovation of many commercial banks in China,and has been widely promoted by joint-stock commercial banks,small and medium banks and Chinese rural corporate banking system.Guarantee loans as a whole is considered to be typically Chinese style.However,since 2012,when the situation of national economy becomes worse,the circle of guarantee loans tends to have the negative effects on economics and may cause financial crisis.Usually sense,guarantee circle mainly refers to mutual insurance,coinsurance,circulation between enterprises loans,for enterprises to guarantee loans between layers of association,and thus formed the spider web model of ring chain.Especially in small micro and county enterprises,it is especially common to take out loans such as mutual insurance,joint insurance and circular guarantee.Frequent from the current circle of guarantee risk events,guarantee circle of loan risk caused by the crisis really to financial security in our country,enterprises and social good faith construction caused bad influence the fairness of the market economic order.Many enterprises not only to bring huge funds and operating pressure,and accumulate and enlarge the market of financial risks,and forms a huge bad debt will eventually lead to a bank,it will no doubt increase the risk of the entire financial system.Therefore,the guarantee ring problem cannot be ignored.The guarantee circle of loan risk identification and control,to help financial institutions to better grasp the enterprise operating performance,dynamic management on the loan risk of the enterprise,thereby reducing the occurrence of actual loss.The thesis firstly discuss the causes of guarantee loans circles and analyze the foundation of theoretical ideas,and then reviewed the literature both in China and overseas,to discuss why and how to form a circle of guarantee loans.In the chapters as follows,we compares the default.event that induced by circle of guarantee loans,and analyze the risk hidden and transmission mechanisms.By applying social network analysis of basic structure data,we try to map and interpret the basic structure of guarantee loans circles.In addition,we calculate quantitatively whether the indicators of guarantees loans have effects on enterprises' non-performing loans.Finally we propose how to improve the risk control and risk management in commercial banking.