Monetary Policy Effectiveness Research

Since 1990s,the discussion about the effectiveness of monetary policy based on rational expectations in our country has not ceased.In the ninetys,according to the actual situation in China,Economists point out that in the period of economic reform in our country,the changing of economic structure makes the expectation more difficult that there have no rational expectations conditions and make an explaination that the effect of monetary policy in our country does not meet "the theory of policy invalidation".From 21st century,though the economic growth was becoming stable in China;the financial market develop fast and become perfection constantly;monetary policy has more regularity,rational expectations conditions become mature;The actual effect of monetary policy in China is still inconsistent with rational expectations theory.Economic scholars start to explore rational expectations hypothesis condition from the rational expectations itself,and also think that the reasoning of rational expectations model of Lucas holds only in perfectly competitive market or effective market of strong type,which explains the reason the monetary policy is often effective in reality.For the moment,the people of our country widely participating in the securities market,in order to grasp the information timely,they pay more attention to monetary policy,at the same time in order to obtain additional interest or make sure their own interests being not damaged in economic fluctuations,they tend to make expectations according to the information they get.In addition to the requirements of adjusting wages,it also accompanied by adjustment of economic behavior,and the change of economic behavior will influence the economic variables.In this paper,we mainly discuss the influence that the public's adjustment of economic strategy based on expectations on the macroeconomic goals before the implementation of the monetary policy.By solving rational expectations model of Lucas,this paper interprets the"Theory of ineffective monetary policy" under the condition of rational expectations,and then evaluate the model of rational expectations and put forward to Ex ante effect of monetary policy.Because the regularity of national economic policy and the progress of the society,the public is easier to predict the government public policy,so it is reasonable to join the policy expected variable in rational expectations model.And then derived in the public expectations of monetary policy and the corresponding adjust economic policies will impact expected current actual economic variables,namely because the public response to expected before the implementation of monetary policy can play a role,and by regression analysis through the monthly data from 2006 to 2015,the conclusion is that next money supply M1 is the Granger cause of the current economic output GDP by using Granger causality test,and economic output of the current period is not the Granger cause of money supply M1.next time to It verified the public's expectations of the M1 money supply can really affect the current economy is forecast to the monetary policy effect exists in advance.