The Empirical Analysis Of Cross-border RMB Trade Settlement Influencing Factor Under RMB Internationalization Perspective

The year 2015 is of great significance because of the progress of national financial,and especially the promotional of the RMB internationalization.With the continuous development of China's foreign trading,RMB's international status is increasingly amplified.In 2009,five cites were chosen to be the first experimental districts to be the Cross-border trade settlement regions after the releasing of the document "The Cross-trade RMB trade settlement Administrative Regulation" on October.8th 2015,the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System,CIPS in short,was officially launched in Shanghai.Until December 2015,Cross-Border trade settlement in RMB was amounted to 72.3 trillion Yuan,representing an increase of 10.72%over the whole time.,which signified the stage success of RMB internationalization.However,as-for Chinese government,there still exists a big gap between them due to many reasons,including irrational industrial structure and insufficient offshore RMB channels.Therefore,it's of great necessity to study the factors and strategies of the topic.This article aims at the international trade settlement in RMB and starts from the international trade settlement currency of choice theory,international monetary theory,combining of which with the China actual condition.At the same time,identifies four aspects of disadvantages,such as lacking of supervision,insufficient of RMB channels.This article selects the monthly data from January 2012 to December 2015 to make the VAR model as well as ECM model.Then use the unit root tests,impulse responses analysis and variance decomposition to analyze the influential factors of RMB cross-border trade settlement,which includes the following four aspects:(1)the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate,(2)the consumer price index CPI,(3)international trade amount of exports,(4)international trade amount of imports and(5)the development of offshore RMB market especially.Finally,according to the result of ECM and VAR model as well as impulse responses and variance decomposition result,raises suggestions from exchange rate formation mechanism,policy systems,offshore RMB market,etc.