| Since China stopped welfare-oriented public housing distribution system and carried out commercial residential building market-oriented reform in 1998,with the constant acceleration of China’s urbanization process,Chinese real estate market experienced rapid growth period,and it developed and became stronger constantly.Especially from 2003 to 2007,the overall industry entered the gold period of development.However,attacked by financial crisis in 2008,the previous dazzling and good-performance real estate industry was also difficult to immune from it.“Double Decreases” occurred in the real estate market in 2008,the sales volume and sales amount of commercial residential building decreased at the same time and appeared negative growth for the first time.At that time,to avoid it evolving into economic crisis,the government of China took a series of bailout means including 4-trillion investment incentive plan,which lifted fixed asset investment obviously,specially the investment enthusiasm of real estate development industry.Hereafter,especially after 2012,in the situation where economic growth slowed down,government at all levels had the impulsion to pull economy through stimulating real estate.The investment enthusiasm of the first-tier and second-tier cities rose constantly.At the same time,land supply became hard to get and land king occurred frequently.This triggered people’s worry about excessive investment to real estate in all sectors,especially in the situation of high inventory of commercial residential building and low sale pace.In the face of high-speed expansion of real estate development,the evaluation and the volume of excessive investment,largest driving factor of excessive investment,and relief solution to excessive investment are problems to be urgently solved by the educational circles.Referring to Western mature evaluation methods of excessive investment and taking real estate development companies listed before 2007 in Shanghai and Shenzhen as the research sample,this paper,through expected investment model of Richardson,verified the existence of excessive investment among listed companies and measured the volume of annual excessive investment of each company.To analyze specific factors of excessive investment,this paper,by data envelope analysis,investigates the investment efficiency of listed real estate companies and points out projects the low-efficiency investment mainly in.After that,according to free cash flow theory,the significance of the impact of free cash flow in the real estate industry on excessive investment was analyzed through panel data analysis.If significance relationship existed,the significance of the impact on excessive investment and investment efficiency was investigated by taking corporate governance and equity structure as dependent variable according to information asymmetry,agency by entrustment and stakeholder theory on the condition of taking free cash flow as control variable.Thus,whether the enterprise’s investment efficiency to be enhanced and excessive investment of real estate industry to be relived were demonstrated through the improvement of equity and governance.Moreover,micro-factors that could improve excessive investment of real estate enterprises significantly were pointed out.As demonstrated,it was discovered,from 2008 to 2015,the average proportion of excessive investment of listed real estate companies was 46% and the minimum was 21%.Thus,excessive investment was obvious.Meanwhile,average 69 listed real estate companies behaved insufficient investment efficiency per year.Except 2012 and 2014,over half of enterprises had low investment efficiency.Such low efficiency was mainly reflected in high management and marketing expense and high financing cost of real estate company.similar with common manufacturing enterprises,excessive investment of real estate company has high sensitivity to free cash flow.Excessive investment volume and free cash flow had significantly positive correlation.For enterprise governance factor,it was discovered: the shareholding of largest shareholder,the board size and excessive investment amount appeared reversed U-relation,but the correlation was insignificant;the shareholding of senior executive and excessive investment volume appeared negative correlation,but it was insignificant;and the correlativity between investment efficiency and three company governance variables was the same as that with excessive investment volume and the significance was higher than that with excessive investment.Thus,it is concluded: micro governance factors can enhance the investment efficiency of real estate development project,but are not enough to restrain excessive investment volume.As long as a large quantity of free cash flow exists,real estate enterprises inevitably have the excessive investment impulsion.To control excessive investment of real estate development industry,not only do we need to enhance enterprise’s management level,but also need steady monetary policy orientation toward real estate in institutional level so as to provide a good capital environment for real estate industry. |
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