| China's Open-end fund's industry started late,the stock market is not mature enough,so investors on the fund's understanding is not comprehensive,since the establishment of open-end funds with a huge redemption pressure,redemption rate is higher.This phenomenon is widely concerned by scholars,the focus of the study is the fund's performance and the relationship between the fund's redemption rate,fund performance and the fund's redemption rate is positively related to the existence of "redemption vision",and vice versa.The results of the study are divided:Some scholars put forward the existence of open-end funds "redemption vision",while the other part of the scholars through empirical research that "redemption vision" is a false impression.In order to explore whether there is a "redemption and confusion" phenomenon in China's open-end funds,at the same time,analyzing the factors that may affect the redemption of open funds.,this paper chooses 210 open funds from public data in Wende database(WIND),including 20 Stock funds,20 bond funds,160 hybrid funds.Based on the panel data from 2007 to 2015,the non-equilibrium panel fixed effect model is used to analyze the net performance of the fund and the net inflow of personal funds and the net inflow of funds based on the stock market fluctuation and the structure of the investors.And analyze some possible influencing factors.The conclusion of this paper is:(1)Fund flow and current fund performance is negatively correlated,there is "redemption vision".(2)The historical performance of the fund is positively related to the net inflow of funds.The historical performance of the fund is negatively related to the net inflow of fund personal funds;(3)Investors in the "bull market" and "bear market" difference is not great,even in the "bull market",from the whole point of view investor is not "chase performance",we can only say that compared to "bear market",the investor more inclined to "chase performance";(4)The net cash flow of equity funds and the performance of the securities market is significant;(5)The fund size is negatively correlated with the net flow of the fund.Fund prices are positively related to net flows.Fund risk is positively related to the net capital of institutional funds,negatively correlated with net cash flow of personal funds,Fund age and fund dividend times have no significant correlation to the net flow of the fund.Based on the above conclusions,this paper has the following inspiration:(1)The degree of rationality of individual investors to be improved,the recognition of the Fund to be strengthened,we should strengthen the individual investors of the fund education;(2)The management of the Fund should be accurate to predict the market trend,to prevent a higher liquidity risk;(3)Fund managers should control the size of the fund to prevent the fund share apper large-scale redemption because of the fund's scale effect is diminishing;(4)The number of dividends in the model of this paper has no significant relationship with the net flow of the fund,This does not mean that the fund's dividend on the net flow of the fund must not be related,further research is needed to explore the relationship between the dividend amount of the fund to the net flows of the fund.(5)This paper in the study of fund performance is considered when the fund's current performance and lagging a quarter of the historical fund performance,found that the current fund performance and historical fund performance on the impact of different funds,lag a quarter has a certain limit,in the future study should consider the lag of the annual rate of return. |
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