The Multiplier Empirical Analysis Of Financial Institutions' Loans On Economic Increase

During the period from 2009 to 2015,the loan of China's financial institutions has continued to expand rapidly,and the economy has developed steadily.There is no doubt that the loan of the financial institutions sector was an indispensable key factor in economic development.But after the economy stepped into the new normal period,credit is still growing in the growth rate.Facing the abnormal phenomenon we will inevitably doubt whether our economic growth is overly dependent on the promotion of loan? Is it possible to analyze the role of all aspects of society in the economy of the real economy? Monetary policy as a mean of government regulation of the economy,how to properly implement the loan policy? These questions are worth thinking about,so this paper focus on the financial institutions of the real economy and make a detailed analysis of the impact of the economy.In this paper,we firstly to analyze the mechanism of financial institutions' direct and complete impact on the real economy.Secondly,according to the actual demand,we can compile the unique matrix flow table from 2001 to 2014 and the capital flow extension table in 2015.This paper puts the multiplier analysis model into the analysis of the impact of the specific transaction project loan on the economy in the financial flow table.The final result is that successfully measuring the direct and complete impact of the use of the loan on the output quantity of the each sector for the first time,which are the direct income(expenditure)coefficient and the full income(expenditure)coefficient of the "sector * transaction".In combination,we can obtain the multiplier effect from total loan amount to the entire real economy.A comparative analysis of the differences in the pulling and driving effects of the above loans on the real economy and their respective trends have come to the conclusion that non-financial firms are relatively dependent on loans from financial institutions and consumer loans in the household sector are also important points for economic growth.The financial sector to grow and develop very fast,but also to tap the potential of the development of foreign institutions,the overall view,the role of financial institutions to the real economy,the degree of change with the basic changes in the basic smooth,little change,but it is worth noting that Under the new economy,the full impact of the loan on the domestic institutional sector is slightly increased.Based on the above results,it is feasible to put forward practical financial advices for the relevant departments and the Central People's Bank for the purpose of "optimizing the utilization of funds and promoting economic development".