| Financial risk is a pressing issue in the operation and management of finance all over the world,especially in 2008,after the explosion of global financial crisis,in order to cope with the downward pressure on economic growth,countries all over the world adopted macro readjustment and control by a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately easy monetary policy.However,with the rising financial deficit and debt,the accumulation of previous scatted economic risk has been becoming worries of government finance.European debt crisis and US' fiscal cliff are both bad effects of accumulating financial risks.In 2014,the development of economy in China has step in a new stage because of the shifting of economic growth,the changing structure and the previous stimulating policy.While economy in China ended its rapid growth period which maintained a double digit growth,the condition of China finance also is stepping a new stage by ending its high-speed growth.Instead,it increases slower than before.Since the lack of motivation to stimulate the increase of economy,Chinese government implement expansive fiscal policy by reducing income and increasing expenditure which could play a role in keeping the stability of rising and adjustment of structure.But due to the policy,the conflict between income and expenditure in finance gradually appeared.The accumulating fiscal risks may lead to financial crisis even economic crisis.Therefore,we have to build a mechanism to assess and supervise the fiscal crisis so that the operation process and results of financial policy can be supervised in real time.Then financial risks can be discovered and avoided in time.How to realize the assessment of fiscal risk's level,find out the reason of causing fiscal risk,offer measures for financial management and risk prevention to realize the sustainable development of China's finance,finally hold the bottom line which fiscal risk cannot beyond?Then this paper will discusses following the path which contains theoretical research,empirical research,factor analysis,precautionary measure and countermeasure and suggestion.When choosing the specific study path,this paper will concern financial policy,fiscal management and budget system,fiscal revenue and expenditure,and government debt as the factors of making financial risk,and it will analyze how much that every factor haven done to the financial risk.At first,the paperwill analysis the reason of fiscal risk,the influence factor and the results by adopting theoretical analysis,normative research and qualitative analysis.Then,promote qualitative analysis to shift to quantitative analysis,and build a series of index system which caused fiscal risk,then determine the weight of indicator system by analytic hierarchy process(AHP).In the empirical test,this paper will use conceptual model to explain the questions of theory,then use measurement model to assess specific fiscal risk.The main steps follow the text.Firstly,divide the index' s risk interval through theoretical analysis and GARCH model.Secondly,according to the weight and the interval mapping of risk index having been confirmed,we structure the evaluating system that fit China's economic development model and financial operation characteristics.Thirdly,compute the value of risk index of every risk subsystem and value of comprehensive index of financial risk.At last,this paper will combine our special economical situation and the results of the empirical research,to offer specific countermeasures and suggestions. |
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