Analysis Of The Economic Effects Of Local Government Debt In China

In recent years,local government debt problem has attracted many attentions of the society.Especially after the financial crisis in 2008,to expand domestic demand,the local government debt scale expands unceasingly.Therefore,scholars to such problems as the necessity of local governments to issue bonds to give more attention,the research on local government debt risk prevention.In 2014,the budget law was amended to clearly,local governments can raise funds by way of government bonds.Now the local government to issue bonds has become inevitable.The issuance of capital how to effectively use is imminent.In the Chinese economy into the three periods of "stack" in the new period,the social development into the rule of law to promote a new stage of social governance,the local government debt issues related to conduct a comprehensive,in-depth and systematic research is the inevitable requirement of deepen fiscal and taxation theory research at the present stage in China.And how to objectively evaluate the economic effect of local government debt,is improve the efficiency of local debt operation and management to promote the healthy development of local government debt in order to,also need to promote the development of local social economy.This paper hope through the study of economic effect of local government debt,clear the local government debt money,so as to better play a role of local government debt macroeconomic control provides the basis.This article is divided into six parts.The first part,to clarify the meaning of thesis topic selection,research ideas and methods,innovations and shortcomings;The second part,the basic connotation of local government debt is defined,the economic effect of local government debt related theory are expounded,and analysis;The third part,on the development of China's local government debt has carried on the review at the same time,the existing problems and negative effects are expounded and analyzed.Especially to the national audit office of local government debt audit results,on the basis of the primary data of local government debts scale,financing source and to wait for a circumstance,this paper discusses the negative effect of the existence of local government debt scale and to the negative effects;The fourth part,through the establishment of hierarchical analysis model and linear regression model,from the Angle of the industry and the industry,the economy of local government debt(plus or minus)effect for further empirical research.Results show that the dominant local government debt for industrial influence coefficient is greater than the stealth debt;Effect of local government stock of debt of the third industry is the largest,least to thesecond industry,but on the import and export is negative effects;Development of finance,real estate and other industries have a greater positive effect,but the development of wholesale and retail,tourism and other industries have a negative effect.The fifth part,comparing the international experience,analysis of the local government in the United States and Japan main approach of improving local government debt is effect and characteristics of the enlightenment that Chinese local government debt and better play to the economic benefit of;The sixth part,puts forward the promotion effect of local government debt in our country's economy is the ideas and policy Suggestions.Believe that as soon as possible to establish and perfect the budget of the local government debt management system,clear the investment direction of local government debt and the standard local government investment behavior.