The Empirical Analysis Of The Third-party Payment Impact On The Money Supply?the Monetary Multiplier And The Monetary Velocity

With the development of the Internet and the acceleration of financial innovation,the Internet financial has become more and more concerned by the academic and non-academic circles.Internet financial is divided into four categories:third-party payment and financing platform,financing platform and virtual currency.People can assured shopping online,and people also can serve as a means of payment offline,the third party payment have gradually changed people's payment.The latest data show that China's third party Internet payment transaction size of more than 8 trillion in 2014,and third-party Internet payment transaction scale has broken 10 trillion in 2015.The third-party payment is becoming more and more convenient,the transaction size is becoming larger and larger,whether it will bring certain influence on China's currency.If it will make affected on China's currency,how great is the influencing of each other.And should we take the factor of the third-party payment into consideration,when setting monetary policy in our country.All of the questions need to explore.As third-party payment trade scale expands gradually,academia and the academia is becoming more and more attention to the third party payment.But there are a number of papers explore the theories.And the third party payment research pay more attention on the development model and regulatory.Instead of there are a few of relative literatures exploring the impact of the third party payment on the monetary.So,in order to make up this deficiency,this paper select third-party payment from the perspective of empirical analysis research on the influence of China's currency.There are two parts in this paper,the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.At first,analysis the third-party payment influence on China's currency,and then this paper selects time series methods to analysis the influence.After the analysis of whether there is a long-term and stable relationship,we carry on cointegration test and causality test,and we can get the influence of the relationship between the variables.The last,we build VAR model and impulse response function to analysis of the influence of money supply,money multiplier,and the impact of the monetary velocity from third-party payment.This paper analysis the third-party payment influence on the money supply in China from the Keynesian monetary demand theory.We assumes that the money supply is endogenous,and the money demand and the money supply can keep balance.So the substitution effect of third-party payment made the transfer of money from MO to Ml and M2.And the money supply M1 and M2 will increase.The empirical results show that the third party payment will increase the money supply M1 and M2.Theoretical analysis shows that the third party payment has dual effects on monetary multiplier.On the one hand,the third party payment increase monetary multiplier by influencing cash leakage rate,the rate of excess reserves and time deposit and current deposit rate.On the other hand,third-party payment made part of the money outflow the bank credit system,so as to reduce the monetary base to create,thus reducing the money multiplier.The empirical analysis shows that the third party payment influence will reduce the money multiplier K1 in the long run,but the third party payment influence will increase the money multiplier K2 in the long run.This paper analysis the third-party payment influence on the money velocity from the fisher equation and people pay habits.When the total value of social transaction of goods and services keeps unchanged in the short term remains,the third-party payment will increase the money supply M1 and M2,so as to decrease the money velocity.In the long run,third-party payment will make the payment convenient,and it will change people pay habits.And it will increase the money velocity.The empirical analysis shows that the money velocity will be accelerated by the third-party payment in the long run,and the third-party payment will made money velocity decreases in the short term.The innovation of this paper is that the topic is the newest and the data is the latest.The third-party payment as a branch of the Internet financial is the new things,and there is becoming more and more attention among academia and non-academics.And there is also a bit of papers researching the impact of the monetary from the third-party payment.We summary the development status of the third-party payment,and the impact is discussed from three aspects.And the data is the latest.But there is also some of disadvantages.On the one hand,due to the third-party payment being fresh things,which is developing rapidly in recent years,academics have just begun to focus on,so the third party payment inquiry is not very thorough,and my ability is limited,so this paper studies about the third-party payments is not very clear.On the other hand,the third-party payment just appeared in recent years,and there is lack of authoritative data sources and the data volume is relatively small.