Research On The Rationality Of The Base Price Of Land Leasing Based On Monte Carlo Simulation

Land values and prices play an important role in the country, society and life. In recent years, in particular, "ground" frequently present, very high land premium rates, the land reserve has become the focus of further land managers and financial managers and other relevant departments, It’s of great significance to find a way to determine the reasonableness of the reserve price of land.Taking Liling City for instance in this paper.in the context of the important theoretical analysis of the system of land rent, land prices and other factors, and evaluation methods are formulated. Based on the land transfer data of 2010-2014 years Liling City, relevent residential real estate data, Statistical Yearbook of Liling City, etc. biography, based on Monte Carlo simulation is used for assessing prices of 51 residential plots. Do classify the reasonable samples and unreasonable samples and on the basis of in-depth analysis of the causes of unreasonable samples.The results show that:in the 51 residential plots land, there are 29 plots prices conform to the price range of the Monte Carlo simulation valuation. While another 22 plots ’prices are not within the valuation range. Unreasonable plots are mainly analyzed, finding that the main reasons are as follows:industrial policies, formation and development of Liling Economic Development Zone, as well as the construction of major transport routes, changes of radiation effect on the surrounding land. Based on these reasons, suggestions are advised to provide the conditions for a more effective assessment of land prices..Considering the development of comprehensive land market changes, the local benchmark land should be timely updated and the land price dynamic monitoring system be improved, and a database system of land price and the real estate price be established, etc.