Statistical Analysis For The Fluctuation Of Oil Price And Its Impact On Economy In China

China's current economy is still in a stage of rapid development so the demand for energy encounters rapid expansion. Affected by many domestic factors, the volatility of oil prices also will be intense, so the interference of the fluctuation of oil prices on China's economy has gradually deepened. This paper attempts to study the domestic spot price volatility of oil and investigate its impact on China's economic indicators from the side. This paper has crucial practical significance in a correct understanding of the rapid development of China's economy market.Based on the analysis of a large number of carding literature reviews, this paper did a statistical analysis to the relevant data combining both the theoretical analysis and empirical analysis point of view. First, the fluctuations in domestic oil spot prices was analyzed on a statistical basic. Furthermore, the analysis was followed by further adoption of ARMA model and nonparametric autoregressive model fitting contrast to the fluctuation of the domestic oil prices. Thirdly, I selected the monthly data from 2000 to 2015, from the empirical perspective, analyzed the wave of our country economic indicators, using correlation analysis and Granger causality test to study the domestic oil price affect our country economy. Finally, the summary of this study was given. Also I put forward some practical policy recommendations from the perspectives of the fluctuation of the oil price combined with the actual situation of Chinese market.