Research On Purchase Risk Management Based On Hedging

In recent years,with the impact of economic globalization,the links of countries are more closely in the world,the boundaries of foreign and domestic markets become increasingly blurred.In the domestic market,the price of bulk raw materials more impact by the international market,resulting in significant fluctuations of price,brought a lot of risks to manufacturing enterprises’ normal operation in China.Hedging as an important means of risk management,can effectively transfer the business risk that because of raw material price fluctuations,improving the operating efficiency of enterprises.Currently,more and more foreign countries’ companies involved in hedging.But in the country,especially small and medium enterprises,due to the lack of experience and awareness and other factors,the proportion of enterprises involved in hedging is not very high.In this thesis,with A company as the research object.The research is focus on under the condition of raw material price volatility,A company how to use hedging tool to reduce risks.First,introduce the current situation of hedging in A company,analyze the necessity and feasibility of the hedging.And then,the research focuses on how to determine the hedging ratio of copper of A company.On the basis of previous studies,this paper selected three theoretical models,they are OLS,ECM and ECM-BGARCH,used to calculate the hedging ratio of A company.In order to compare the pros and cons of three kinds of calculation model,we use the evaluation model to evaluate the results of calculation.Finally,analysis the hedging benefit and risk of the A company,point out the risks of A company that in the process of hedging.And give the corresponding suggestions and comments.The results of this thesis show,by paticipating in hedging,the effect of A company about reduce the risk of copper price fluctuation is obvious,calculate the optimal hedging ratio of copper.Hope through research analysis of A company,have certain significance for similar manufacturing enterprises.