Research Of The Energy Trading Strategy Decisions Of The Electricity Traders In Sale-side Market Based On The Game Theory

Under the background of high penetration of distributed energy resources accessed,the market-oriented reform of electricity sale-side market becomes a new situation and an inevitable developing trend of future regional power network.On the one hand,to achieve friendly interaction and orderly developmentof source,network and load,the access of distributed energy resources should meet the principle and the requirement of market-oriented reform.On the other hand,the market members should consider the facts of distributed energy resources accessed and take full advantage of distributed energy resources by designing reasonable trading strategy to eliminate the adverse effects.Therefore,the research of new market-oriented operation pattern of electricity sale-side under the background of high penetration of distributed energy resources accessed and the study of strategic decision method of market members during the electric power trade have practical significance in the effective use of distributedenergyresource,the improvement of economic performance of market members and the process of market-oriented reform of electricity sale-side market.This paper studies the electricity traders' strategy decision method in electricity sale-side.The design of market-oriented operation pattern of electricity sale-side market and energy management system of regional power network,the establishment of trader's unilateral and multilateral trading strategy and the assessment of trading strategy's risks are studied in this paper.First of all,based on existed converge method of distributed energy resources,electricity traders at different levels are introduced into the new market participant.A market organization structure which converge energy layer upon layer is built in this paper.This paper also design a market-oriented pattern of the regional power gridwith high compatibility and good expandability which meets the need of market-oriented reform.According to the operation pattern,an energy management system which contain network management subsystem and source/load management subsystem is designed.The interaction of two energy management systems ensures the safe operation of regional power grid and coordinated development of source,network and load and provide support to achieve market-oriented pattern on physical-layer.The energy management process of regional power grid based on electricity energy manage plan and the function module of market participant based on cognitive agent model is designed in this paper.Next,this paper focus on the study of strategic decision-making of electricity traders in the market-oriented operation pattern.Based on the reliability power price,the electric quantity-price model is established according to the market inverse demand function,and the trading strategy scheme library of electricity traders is built by using reverse price-fixing method.The trading strategy game model on the scene of unilateral and multilateral trading is built based on static game with incomplete information.The general solution expression of Bayesian-Nash equilibrium in the game model is given.Through simulation example the correctness and effectiveness of the strategy decision-making game method is proved.The influence of the number of traders to the expected revenue is analyzed,and reasonable range of the number of traders is given according to the Herfindahl Hirschman index.Finally,this paper studies the risk evaluation and optimization.According to the probabilistic model of distributed energy resources output,the trading strategy game model which contain the stochastic characteristic of distributed energy resources is built by using static game method with incomplete information in multilateral trading scene.And the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium solution of the model is calculated on the basis of statistical property of revenue which is related to the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium trading volume,the risk of each trading strategy is evaluated.The electricity traders design their objective function,which balance risk and revenue according to their risks affordability,and build and calculate the optimization model of strategy dicision-making.The correctness and feasibility of optimization model of strategy decision-making game is proved by MATLAB simulation example.