Reserch On Supply Chain Financing Business Credit Risk Evaluation

According to<Report on the development of Chinese Enterprises(2015)>,SMEs,who create more than 60%of GDP in China,play an important role in economic development,and we should strongly support SMEs’ development.However,according to the statistical result of commercial banks’ credit information from China Banking Regulatory Commission,up to June 30,2014,large companies have get more than 50%of the loan amount,with SMEs only 16%,which means SMEs still encounter with financing difficulties.In order to supporting the development of SMEs,we should firstly solve the financing difficulties.The Supply Chain Financing Business is first introduced by Shenzhen Development Bank.Unlike traditional credit business,the Supply Chain Financing Business no longer evaluate credit risk depending on SME only,extending to the whole Supply Chain.The Supply Chain Financing Business can enhance the evaluation of the credit risk.So in order to solve the financing difficulties,we should promote the development of the Supply Chain Financing Business.For the sake of the Supply Chain Finance developing healthly,we should control the credit risk,so the research on Supply Chain Financing Business Credit Risk Evaluation becomes an important subject.Although we have established relatively perfect evaluation system of the credit risk,the evaluation system of the Supply Chain Financing Business credit risk is still in the preliminary state.For the sake of having a preliminary understanding on our research subject,the paper fistly introduces the definition,characteristics,the differences between the tradional loan and the Supply Chain Finance,and then analyzes the influencing factors of the credit risk of the Supply Chain Finance.Then the paper confirm the MKMV-Logit from the introducing of used models,principles of model selection and feasibility analysis.In order to prove the operability of MKMV-Logit,the paper collect 52 ST or NOT-ST companies,who are matched in industry and scale.The empirical result tells that the failure probability is consistent with the reality.Then the paper test the model from accuracy and robustness:firstly,using contrastive analysis between the traditional loan and the Supply Chain Finance,we find the MKMV-Logit has higher accuracy;secondly,using case study outside the sample range,we find the MKMV-Logit has higher robustness.In a word,the MKMV-Logit can evaluate the Supply Chain Financing credit risk better.Finally,we give some advice,and we also point out the areas to be strengthened on the study of the MKMV-Logit model and it provides guidance for further research.Through this study,the conclusions show the operability and applicability of the MKMV-Logit model on the measurement of the credit risk of the Supply Chain Financing Business,and it gives guidelines for the credit risk measurement and management.