Study On Efficiency Of Agriculture Water Utilization Under Dual Constraints Of Resource And Environment

The shortage of water resources and agricultural water pollution has long been an important factor to restrict the development of agricultural economy in our country,and the agricultural water has not a perfect price and management mechanism,leading to low efficiency of agriculture water utilization in the process of agricultural production.Paying attention to efficiency of agriculture water utilization related to national agricultural development,food security and other issues of national economy and people’s livelihood,therefore this content of our studying accords with the current situation of China’s agricultural development,consistent with the concept of sustainable development of agriculture and the "13th Five-Year" plan.Therefore,the SBM-Undesirable and Meta-frontier models are used in combination with empirical data of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2014,to compare agricultural water use efficiency and grain crops water use efficiency.On this basis,the influence factors of agricultural production water use efficiency were analyzed by Tobit model with random effects.Preliminary progress is made:(1)Adding constraints to the SBM-Undesirable model,that is,to increase the input variable agricultural water constraints,the analysis found that both the agricultural or gain production with water,under the constraints of water use efficiency were higher than those in the non constrained water efficiency,but the trend of time under unconstrained and constrained performance is basically the same.(2)The performance of agricultural water use efficiency in the eastern,central and western regions is the highest in the East,the second in the middle,and the lowest in the west.However,the grain water use efficiency is not consistent with agriculture,which is the highest in the middle,the second in the West and the lowest in the east.(3)There is a big difference in the efficiency of water use in agricultural production under different frontier,which can be seen from the analysis of the technical gap between the eastern,central and Western regions.The performance of technology gap ratio in agriculture is the best in eastern,but there is a downward trend,the performance of the western region is more stable than the national average level,the central region of the larger fluctuations,the latter ratio is higher than the East and west.The performance of technology gap ratio in grain is the best in central region,and fluctuated in the eastern and the western is larger than that in the middle.(4)Through the study of factors affecting agricultural production water efficiency,we find that agricultural mechanization level,technical factors,agricultural output and per capita net income of farmers per capita on agricultural production and water use efficiency have different degrees of influence.It is worth noting that the unit area irrigation costs,the per capita net income of rural residents and the degree of mechanization of agriculture in some areas,the impact of the results are inconsistent with expectations,It is worth noting that the impact of unit area irrigation fee,per capita net income of rural residents and the degree of agricultural mechanization are inconsistent with the expected results,the results show that the water-saving irrigation equipment has not been widely used,and the irrigation fees and agricultural water price is not reasonable.(5)Finally,we want to forecast the agricultural water consumption and water use efficiency.In this paper,we use inverse DEA to forecast the agricultural water consumption in 2020,and further calculate the efficiency of agricultural water use in 2020.In addition,this paper also gives the prediction results under different conditions by common forecasting method,namely a set shape method.The results are compared with those obtained by inverse DEA method.