The Contribution Rate Rasearch Based On Long-term Care Insursnce System Design In China

Since 1999,China has entered an aging society,according to the National Bureau of Statistics,the end of 2013 elderly people aged 60 and above in China accounts for 14.9%of the population in our country,by 2050,China's aging population will reach 483 million,which accounts for about 34.1%of the total population.With an aging population,the elderly body function decline,has a greater likelihood of acute or chronic diseases,disability risk is greatly increased,and it also brings the huge potential long-term care needs;However,with the acceleration of urban and rural population flow in our country in recent years,the family structure and living mode change,makes the traditional family care function in our country gradually weakening;Plus financial sustainability and long-term disability need,the old man retirement or pension is far not enough to pay,and overly depending on their offspring will cause the family heavy financial pressure and the psychological burden.As a result,the financial risk of the disability has become the social risk for every social member,but because the individual disability risk events are unpredictable,individual planning the measures of saving to prevent disability risk is blind and lack of efficiency.By the market failure,the law of large number and risk-sharing principle,only setting up covering all the old man's social long-term care insurance system can effectively resolve the financial risks brought by the old man disability,and social long-term care insurance payment rate reflects the degree of risk-sharing.This article is based on the contribution rate of the long-term care insurance system as the research object,and analyzes the feasibility of the implementation of social long-term care insurance in our country from the perspective of finance.It is not only a theory but also the mainstream of government practice to dissolve the disability elderly long-term care financial risk by social insurance.Firstly,this article comparatively analyzes the current long-term care insurance system of Israel,Germany,Japan and South Korea,then designs the financing mechanisms and payment mechanisms of the long-term care insurance system for our country.Next,researches the balance of long-term care insurance rate from the perspective of empirical,and first establish lateral balance rate model;Based on the depth analysis of elderly disability rates,disability population,payment standard of care in three ways,the total cost of care needs in the future and other variables,the paper measures out the overall equilibrium rate levels,and calculate the proportion of individuals,enterprises and government under three programs.The results show that individuals,enterprises,government do not exist under too much pressure to pay in 2015,but the future long-term care insurance will be not a small expenditure;Then establish longitudinal balance rate model,and calculate the insured individual rate level of sub-urban and rural areas from the age of 20 to 64 years old based on four different wage growth,inflation and interest rates,it found that the insured individual's contribution rate increases follow the ages,and increases faster and faster.The specific conclusions as follows:?it is the best choice to establish social long-term care insurance system to resolve long-term care financial risks of Chinese disabled elderly.?China should establish social long-term insurance system as soon as possible,and at this stage should implement PAYG system until the time ripe to transfer accumulation system.?China should implement individuals,enterprises and governments share the burden of long-term care insurance costs.Finally,according to the research of this article,we raise some referential policy suggestions.