Research On The Impact Of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations On The Macro Economy

Based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, this paper establishes a two-country economic model, including three sectors, that is, the family sector, the production sector and the government sector,some of the parameters are calibrated and the others are estimated by means of Bayesian estimation, this paper studies the impact of exchange rate shocks on macro-economic and the role of RMB exchange rate in the technology shock and energy shock transmission. Research results show that the effect of RMB exchange rate shock to consumption level, Interest rate and money supply is significant, but no significant effect on output volatility. Compared with the effect to the technology shock, the effect of transmission that exchange rate to the energy shock is obvious. The results of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model are same as vector auto regressive model. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model can simulate the effect of the RMB exchange rate shock on macro-economic and the role of the external shocks transmission better, it also explain the transmission mechanism of exchange rate shock.