Research On The Distribution Law Of Bidding Quotation Of Construction Projects

Under the background of the era of data, data analysis has become the core of the era. Shenzhen Construction Engineering Trading Center is an institution that is set up by Shenzhen municipal government and provides platforms for the trading of Shenzhen construction projects. After thirty years' development and improvement and four innovation, a unique Shenzhen bidding system for the deal has formed. The accumulation of years of construction transaction data has formed the basis of bidding laws during the observation of construction tradings. Through the analysis of transaction data, problems existing in the bidding market can be found,which can promote the reform and innovation of Shenzhen bidding & trading system and maintain of the fair and order in the project bidding market.The related theory of tender offer is reviewed in this paper, and the effects of tender price control on quotation of the bidders and the behavior of the bidders under the tender price control mode are analyzed. By studying the development process, the evaluation and calibration method of Shenzhen bidding & trading system, and on the basis of summarized data from 2014 to 2015 in Shenzhen, different data are classified according to the evaluation method, the investment scale, the tender number and the calibration method. The average project bidder number under different classification methods is calculated and the effects of different evaluation method, investment scale and calibration method on the number of bidders are analyzed. As a result, the two indicators of the net down rate and net price limit deviation rate are designed, and the distribution of bidders with different methods of data classification are analyzed and tested by using the histogram method and the goodness-of-fit test.It's found in the study that when the qualitative evaluation method is used with the bidder number of 10 to 30, all the net down rates of the construction projects obey the normal distribution; when the methods of direct voting and the voting to draw calibration are used, the net down rates of the construction projects are approximately to normal distribution, but a larger peak appears in direct voting; when direct voting method, by-round voting method and voting to draw method are used in calibration method, the net deviation rate of tender offer price appeared a rather abnormal peak. Monte Carlo simulation of the bidders offer can verify the above conclusion and By monte carlo simulation method to simulate the bidder quotation and, to a certain extent, direct the bidder bidding behavior and increase the winning probability.The analysis of the research conclusion shows that there are some problems such as the tenderer's non-standard bidding process in the bidding market of Shenzhen, some bidders' unfair competition, bidders' excessive dependence on the norm offer of Shenzhen and the procuratorial agencies' paraphrasing of the tender documents, which are the reasons for the above conclusion. Therefore, suggestions are put forward such as perfecting the relevant laws and regulations, constructing the credit system of Shenzhen, setting up the mechanism of trace, speeding up the latest norm of Shenzhen and improving the service level and service quality of a consultancy.