Analysis Of The Factors Influencing The Exit Of Rural Households In Rural Joint Guarantee Loans

Default events of guaranteed loans in rural areas have an increasing trend these years.Guaranteed loans have been very successful in Bangladesh with the repayment rate surisingly high,thus causing the world to emulate.However,now it has become a hot potato,the repayment rate have and ecreasing trend in the world,farmers exit rate gradually increased,not with an exception in Bangladesh.What exactly causes the guaranteed loans in rural areas to fail?What are the main factors of farmers exit?These issues are worthy of our in-depth study.Though these phenomena of farmers exit,this paper try to analyze the deep-seated reasons of farmers exit and the main factors affecting farmers exit,the farmers quit is an important problem that guaranteed loans industry face.The influencing factors of farmers exit are defined as series of factors that affecting farmers whether can continue to maintain the possibility and tendentiousness of borrowing relationship with guaranteed loans lenders.In order to study the impact farmers exit factors of guaranteed loans in rural areas,the paper first introduces the basic theory of the guaranteed loans,and analyzed the operating principle of the guaranteed loans in rural areas.Followed by the theoretical assumptions of farmers exit,we made a survey of 329 households farmers in the eighteen town of five administrative villages,Henan Province.We learned that there are many factors affecting farmers exit.This paper is to examine the following aspects:First,behavioral variables of the guaranteed loans team members;Second,impact variables on community level;Third,other control variables.Based on this,the dependent variables are:responsibility of guaranteed loans,default penalties,the family distance between the guaranteed members,heterogeneity between guaranteed members,the active level of community organizations,the level of home network,trust model,community trust,identity degree and duration of the guaranteed team,the proportion of migrant workers,the main purpose of the loan,the value of fixed assets in the family etc.Next a systematic analysis was made with these factors,and then through the Logit model we studied these factors and come to the conclusion that heterogeneity between the guaranteed responsibility and guaranteed members affects farmers exit,especially the heterogeneity between responsibility and farmers income.The family distance between the members of the guaranteed,the trust model and community trust degree of recognition are also influencing factors.The level of home network has a certain positive influence on guaranteed farmers exit.The main purpose of the loan,the family value of fixed assets,the penalties for breach of contract and the proportion of migrant farmers is not significant.Based on sustainable development of guaranteed loans in rural areas,the paper give some policy recommendations in order to improve the rural credit environment and resolve the funding gap of the farmers to get rich.