| 2008 American subprime mortgage crisis and the 2009 debt crisis to the world economy caused a huge impact,China has been greatly affected.Enable countries to spearhead the shadow banking,shadow banking boost they think happened twice crisis.Therefore,countries have launched a study of shadow banking.Although China in the crisis least affected,but in recent years,with the rapid economic development in China,"Chinese model of" gradually began to be questioned,even predicted that the next economic crisis is likely to erupt in China.The purpose of article writing is through comparative analysis of shadow banking in the US and Europe,drawing on its experience and lessons,in order to prevent financial crisis in China.First of all,this paper started with the basic meaning of Chinese shadow banking cleared the definition of shadow banking,size,structure analysis,that is,firstly describes the theoretical analysis of the scope of shadow banking,operating mechanism,the potential risk characteristics,and through rigorous empirical analysis establishes shadow banking risk measurement model prediction.Article used theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to explain the topic.Finally,summarizing and sorting out the successful management experience in Europe and America of the shadow banking serving as a reference for the management of China’s shadow banking supervision and risk prediction in particular.Through text analysis and demonstration,the following conclusions:(1)The size and structure of the United States and Europe there is a great difference in the shadow banking,asset securitization,trusts,private equity funds more developed in United States and Europe.But the current shape of the shadow banking still in the early stages of development,asset securitization yet immature,mostly manifested as trusts and off-balance sheet financing and other wealth management business in China.(2)China’s shadow banking current type less,correlation between financial products range is narrow,short operation chain,unlike the European and American countries layers of nested mode of financial network,but ignore the trend of the development of the shadow banking in the future.(3)At present,China’s shadow banking capital chain is relatively short,but with the Internet as well as the prosperity of the emerging financial derivatives,will make the shadow banking credit chain has been stretched.(4)Separate operation and separate supervision model marked regulatory arbitrage,widespread absence of regulation,financial information asymmetry.At the same time of encourage financial innovation,to establish the laws and regulations covering the shadow banking system and risk prediction mechanism. |
