| Monetary policy refers to the use by central bank taking control of changes in money supply and credit supply to achieve specific economic goals,which is a very important part of the macro-economic adjustment and regulation system.Previously,researchers have verified that unified monetary policy will result in different outcome in different regions during its transmission process,which is called differential regional effects of monetary policy.Vast territory and developing discrepancies between areas generate this kind of differential regional effects in China.Since the State Council issued Notice on further deepening the reform of urban housing system and accelerating housing construction in 1998,the government gradually implement the monetization of housing distribution,which marked the beginning of Chinese housing marketization.During the 20 years after,the real estate industry plays an important role in promoting Chinese economic development.Industries of iron and steel,cement,construction,transportation and finance are all driven up by the rapid expansion of real estate.Meanwhile,the rapid expansion led to over-exuberance and bubbles in real estate market,which is now a hidden danger for the economy.Real estate market has been the regulating focus of the monetary authority since 2003.In general,real estate market has a profound influence on both macro-economy and regional economy.Besides,real estate market is vital during the process of monetary policies transmitting to regional economy.Based on the above and the new requirements on real estate industry in the context of new normal of economic development,this paper did an empirical research of the impact of real estate market on Chinese monetary policy regional effect.Most of the previous researches are conducted from the two aspects separately and seldom integrate them.This article discussed the monetary transmission effects by real estate market mechanism based on the perspective of regional difference,combining the regional economy and real estate market,which is meaningful in theory and academy.In addition,this research put forward some suggestions for eliminating the asymmetry and difference in regional monetary policy transmission,realizing the coherence of monetary policies and improving macro-control mechanism in real estate market,which is meaningful in practice.This article consists of five chapters.The first chapter is introduction,which stated research background and significance,literature review of domestic and abroad,research methods and contents,features and inadequacies.The second chapter is the theoretical analysis.This part mainly introduced the relative theories about the monetary policy transmission mechanism and regional difference of monetary policy transmission.Then the empirical research framework of monetary policy regional difference by the real estate market mechanism was presented based on the above-mentioned theories.The third chapter is the history of monetary policy adjustment and control in real estate market and the analysis of current regional differences of real estate market.Firstly,this article did a general retrospect about the five periods of real estate market adjustment.Secondly,regions mentioned in this article were divided on a reasonable basis.Thirdly,regional differences of real estate market were analyzed from aspects of investments,sales and bubbles.The analysis result indicates that the differences are very significant between regions:the average input and output of real estate in eastern part of China are more than that in the middle and western part of China,and so are the average selling price and bubbles.The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis part.Three 6-variables unconstrained VAR models were constructed using the time series data of 96 months from year 2007 to 2014,which represented eastern part,middle part and western part of China respectively.The models covered the fundamentals of macro-economy,regional economy and regional real estate market.After a series of smooth tests of the models,simulated shock responses of different economic variables of different regions were characterized by generalized impulse analysis.Then the regional differential effects of real estate market on monetary policy transmission was empirically estimated from two different dimensions,which are regional and transmission mechanism respectively.The fifth chapter is conclusion and suggestions.The empirical results indicate several problems of Chinese economy in recent years,including the differential regional effects of monetary policy,uneven regional development,economic structural imbalances and so on.Therefore,this article put forward some suggestions from aspects of monetary policy coherence,financial reform,interest rate liberalization and macro-adjustment of real estate market. |
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