Research On The Pension Shortfall Forecast And Countermeasures Of Urban Workers In Gansu Province

Old age is the premise that people will inevitably encounter in natural life stage, people in old age, loss the ability to work and withdrew from the labor involved in social activities gradually, and with this, the living standards of the elderly are protected labor income gradually reduced or lost in order to avoid the elderly in basic standard of living after retirement, the government pension system through the establishment of mandatory savings of workers at work periods and by partial financial subsidies to deal with the risk of workers' "the old no one to support" occurring in old age.However, with modern living standards and improve the level of health services, a significant decline in fertility and an aging population elderly is widespread, the elderly dependency ratio increased significantly, making the pension contributions of the working population decreased, while pensioners the increase in the elderly population, the existing pension system and pension payments regardless of the mode institutionally or financially are facing continuing challenges.The paper selects Gansu as the study area, under the background of population aging, statistical analysis the structure and level of economic development of the region's population ages and pension payments position and other data, to obtain the real situation that Gansu Province's pension payments, taking into account aging population continues to grow rapidly, the transition costs of pension history of institutional change and as a result of increased economic development in the elderly cost of living and a series of factors, through the establishment of appropriate pension calculation model, in the long term, the area of pension potential future payments crisis. To prevent financially unsustainable pensions, the Government should guarantee pension payments crisis, to make up the pension shortfall, according to the article attempts to level of economic development in Gansu Province, referring to measures to deal with pension payments crisis developed regions of the feasible ways to implement the Gansu Province: the government through the implementation of progressive delay retirement, the development of multi-level supplementary pension insurance system, the establishment of Gansu Province pension risk reserve fund and other policies to compensate for population aging brings deepen pension payment gap; For the history of the pension debt, namely pension funding model from the initial pay-as-you-go System to Accumulation policy change caused by transition costs, were offset by the scientific state-owned assets and the issuance of government bonds allocated portion; and for pension raise the level of pay gap, to deal with macroeconomic risks in output volatility and inflation risk, you need to consider pension low risk, valuable investment to guarantee pensions and increasing the value. Pension insurance is the most complex, requires the joint participation by the state, enterprises, individuals, to ensure institutional sustainability of pension and financial sustainability.