A Comparative Study Of The Economic Effects Of China And Central Asia's Transportation Infrastructure

Due to the geographical position close and historical reasons, China and central Asia maintained frequent economic and social communication. In order to meet the needs of the economic development of China and central Asia countries, trade is more and more frequent, increasing trade volume. And transportation infrastructure is the basis of increasing exchanges between economic and social conditions and support. Since the end of last century, over the years with continuously strengthen communications between China and central Asia., greatly promoting the trade between the countries, traffic, economic and social exchanges and provides an essential basis for regional economic development conditions, reduce the transportation cost, improve the efficiency of the economic development, promote economic growth. However, each have different national conditions, China and central Asia and at different stages of economic development level. Transport infrastructure in China and central Asia countries economic growth is not nearly the same. Therefore, this article selects the traffic infrastructure related measure index, analyzes the twenty years of the different economic effect of China and central Asia.Through the analysis of the related VAR co-integration theory, transport infrastructure and whether has the long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth;using the impulse response function of mutual impact between transportation infrastructure and economic growth, it is concluded that the economic growth of the feedback effect of transport infrastructure; through the Granger causality test, analysis of traffic infrastructure whether has the hysteresis effect on economic growth; the use of basic production function model, estimate the degree of influence between variables; joining region with reference to the virtual variable production function model, estimate the comparison of the differences between different countries; joining time lag variable, this paper analyzes the degree of time lag effect of the transportation infrastructure.In this paper, based on the scholars’ research, at first elaborated the transportation infrastructure different effects on economic growth, highlight the importance of the economic growth effect.And using the relevant methods of econometrics, empirical analysis the economic effect of transport infrastructure between China and central Asia.In terms of empirical model, VAR co-integration theory related analysis, respectively, as well as the basic production function model estimation, the introduction of area with reference to the production function model of virtual variables and join transportation infrastructure measure time lag production function model to estimate, analyzes the degree of influence between variables.In this paper, the main conclusion is:(1)the related measure variables between the selected transport infrastructure is a stable system, there is a steady cointegration model equation, a long-term equilibrium relationship;(2)economic growth and the mutual influence between transportation infrastructure related indicators show some of the shock wave response;(3)through Granger causality test of transport infrastructure measures have obvious lag effect on economic growth;(4)According to the basic production function model to estimate, air cargo volume density have a negative impact on GDP per capita, air passenger traffic density has a significant positive impact;(5)join with reference to the virtual variables, economic growth has a significant overall differences in different countries;(6)joining the time lag, the early air cargo volume density has a negative effect on economic growth, and airline passenger numbers has positive effects on economic growth in the early, over time, into a negative impact.