Study On The Cause And Safety Evaluation Model Of Geological Disasters In Panxian County, Guizhou Province

China is a country with relatively frequent occurred geological disasters.Geological disasters in Guizhou province of Panxian are particularly serious affected by topography,coupled with the rich mineral resources on the county.With the continuous exploitation of mineral resources exacerbating various geological disasters man's lives and social economic is in serious condition,such as landslide and collapse frequently.In this paper,based on the specific geographical and geological conditions and historical disasters in Guizhou,Panxian,the typical geological disaster landslide is selected as the object of study,and its causes were deeply analyzed.According to the existing advantages and disadvantages of the safety assessment of geological disaster,the improved grey correlation method and exponential scaling method were combined to establish a comprehensive evaluation model of geological disaster safety,and an example of landslide geological hazard was evaluated.The main research contents and results are as follows:(1)Panxian landslide geological disasters characteristics and influencing factors from the "man-machine-environment-management" system was analyzed with landslide characteristics and the county comprehensive safety evaluation index system constructed.The influencing factors such as human activities,landform,vegetation destruction,rainfall,hydrogeology and disaster management measures were determined.(2)According to the relevant provisions of the previous studies and experience,classification and evaluation standard of dangerous grade of landslide geological disasters were determined.The scaling method of the key factors affecting the risk of the main index were rainfall,landform type,wind and slope shape.Weight values were 0.2159,0.1329,0.0970,0.0890.(3)Using the improved grey correlation analysis method and index method to establish the comprehensive evaluation model of landslide geological disasters.The landslide geological disasters of Le min Zhen Zi Mu Ga village and Song He Guo Luo village were evaluated and then the correlation of landslide geological disasters in each index was determined.The final correlation respectively was 0.8492 and 0.8298.Risk level were moderate risk and high risk,consistent with the actual situation.It proved that the improved grey relational comprehensive evaluation model was reasonable.