Research On The Relationship Between China's Footprint Family And Economic Growth

Since the Ecological Footprint analysis method was proposed by Rees in 1992,the corresponding innovation of the research method,object and category has been put forward in the meantime.With the economic development and social progress,the environmental impact of resource depletion,global warming,extreme weather and other environmental effects increased,and the problems of ecological environment has become more complex.In the context of the current global ecological problems,the concept of Footprint Family comes into being,and Footprint Integration becomes a research hotspot.This research uses the NFA method to calculate the Land Footprint,Fossil Energy Footprint,Water Footprint and the corresponding Ecological Carrying Capacity in 1978-2014 of China,then utilize the "Vertical and Horizontal Deviation Maximization Method" to integrates Footprint Family and the Carrying Capacity as Synthetical Footprint and Synthetical Carrying Capacity,and finally analyses the relationships among Synthetical Footprint,Footprint Family and GDP based on VAR Model and VEC Model.The main conclusions of the Footprint Family in 1978-2014 are as follows:1.The ecological pressure of China is increasing,the Synthetical Footprint increases due to the economic growth.The Synthetical Footprint increases from 0.6401ghm2 to 1.5276ghm2,and the Synthetical Carrying Capacity decreases to 0.6062ghm2 from 0.8650ghm2,which causes the Ecological Deficit expands gradually after 1991.The existence of Granger causality from GDP to the Synthetical Footprint shows that the economic growth is accompanied by the incontinent occupation of land,energy and water consumption.2.The land resources are on the verge of ecological deficit,and the Land Footprint changes by the effect of the urban construction.The Land Footprint decreases to 0.4850ghm2 from 0.5651ghm2,and the Land Carrying Capacity decreases to 0.4971ghm2 from 0.6760ghm2,which causes the Ecological Surplus decreases to 0.0121ghm2 from 0.1109ghm2.In the VEC Model of Land Footprint,Fossil Energy Footprint and GDP are endogenous variables,while the response of Land Footprint on the GDP is negative,and the degree of the influence is 50%.3.The Fossil Energy Footprint increased rapidly,and the hydropower may alleviate the pressure.The Fossil Energy Footprint increases from 0.5268ghm2 to 2.7516ghm2,and the Fossil Energy Carrying Capacity decreases to 0.0844ghm2 from 0.1056ghm2,which causes the Ecological Deficit increases from 0.4572ghm2 to 2.6672ghm2.In the VEC Model of Fossil Energy Footprint,Water Footprint is an endogenous variable,while the response of Fossil Energy Footprint on Water Footprint is weak negative,and the degree of the influence is 25%.4.The freshwater decreases continuely,and the agricultural water accounts for a large proportion of the total water use,and the substantial water use has a negative impact on the economy.The Water Footprint increases from 0.8375ghm2 to 1.1887ghm2,and the Water Carrying Capacity decreases to 1.2389ghm2 from 1.8158ghm2,which causes the Ecological Surplus decreases to 0.0502ghm2 from 0.9783ghm2,and the Ecological Deficit appeared in 2011.In the VEC Model of Water Footprint,Land Footprint and GDP are endogenous variables,while the response of Water Footprint on Land Footprint is positive,and the degree of the influence is 54%.In the VEC Model of GDP,Water Footprint is an endogenous variable,while the response of GDP on Water Footprint is weak negative,and the degree of the influence is 7%.5.The integration of Footprint Family has the realistic meaning,and the Synthetical Footprint can be used as an effective evaluation index.Finally,this paper puts forward the suggestions based on the above conclusions and footprint integration.In the future,the local governments at all levels should grasp the direction of policy,strengthen the supervision of law enforcement,pay attention to the quality of urban construction,enhance the input of electric power science and technology,and control the agricultural water pollution.The method of integrating the Footprint Family and explore the econometric relationships between the Synthetical Footprint,Footprint Family and economic growth,are the innovations of this research.