Research On The Locking Effect Of China's Pollution-intensive Industry Upgrade

Environmental pollution is an unavoidable topic in today's academic circles in the face of great achievements in China's economic take-off and elimination of poverty.With the economic growth,pollution continues to occur,people's lives are different degrees of harm,how to avoid the continuous occurrence of pollution is particularly urgent.93%of the industrial pollution sources come from pollution-intensive industries,but the transformation and upgrading of the industry is not ideal,the industrial development model may appear path dependence phenomenon due to the lock-in effect,like namely the initial "extensive" economic development model,In the reform and opening up and accompanied by China's accession to WTO this "historic event" triggered,industrial development is locked in the low-level technical level and along the established path of wandering,and at last it will be fall into the shackles of development.Therefore,the paper chooses the pollution intensive industry from the industrial,starts from the analysis angle and the method of the "lock-in effect",and studies the problems related to the pollution-intensive industry upgrading and lock-in effect from the theory and the empirical aspect.Finally,according to the research conclusion putting forward the corresponding suggestions and explore the unlock path.In the theoretical aspect,this paper,through the deepening of the deduction of the Arthur technology lock-in effect model,embeds the reform and opening-up policy and China's accession to WTO into the neoclassical economics configuration model(lock-in effect model).Under the condition of increasing economic returns China's industrial development into a low-end technology locked state,and accordance with industry development process concluded that the pollution-intensive industries at the same time became three aspects of structural locking,industrial development locking and resource input locking.On the empirical aspect,this paper analyzes the pollution-intensive industries(taxonomic)exist the lock-in effect in the upgrade based on the panel data of 1999-2014,2004-2014 and through the OLS regression by the pollution-intensive industries and their total factor productivity(TFP).At the end,the robustness test is carried out by using the instrumental variable method.The main conclusions are as follows:First,the development of pollution-intensive industries was U lock-in state.The development of pollution-intensive industries has a self-locking effect,and the lock-in state exhibits a U type locking phenomenon of "increase,decrease,increase".U type locking effect shows that the occurrence of "historical events" may change the development path,but it will also strengthen the original development mode,un-lock the key lies in the open degree and the change of mechanism;Second,human capital and physical capital lock-in caused by pollution-intensive industries to upgrade slow and difficult."Extensive" economic growth model has led to the development of pollution-intensive industries locked in physical capital and human capital,un-lock the key lies in changes in physical capital investment patterns and improve labor productivity,while optimize the industrial structure,making the tertiary industry to absorb more labor is important;Third,investment in R&D to promote pollution-intensive industrial upgrading.R&D investment in pollution-intensive industrial upgradingand technological progress has a significant role in promoting economic development.It mean that R&D investment didn't occur the lock-in effect.This shows that it is because of insufficient R&D investment and technical level is relatively backward,resulting in slow and difficult industrial upgrading.To improve the pollution cost of enterprises and strengthen the environmental control and also enhance scientific research and innovation abitity can effectively eradicate the serious environmental pollution.