Equity Value Of Real Option Method Of The New Three Board Based On Normal Fuzzy Number

In economic activities, asset evaluation, as a pre-work of management and investment, play an important role in investing or managing various physical assets and financial assets. In economic life, the acquisition, merger and other acts need to assess the value of the company. It is can be expected that the company value assessment will become an important component of future asset evaluation.This paper first introduces the origin of the problem, the significance of he study, he review of he research status at home and abroad,the frame structure and research methods of he paper, and puts forword he basic outline of he paper. Then analyzes he real option theory. This paper introduces he basic theory and foundation of he new three boards, introduces 1he development and current situation of the new board and he industry characteristics of the new board, Lay the groundwork for the following question. The next part of the paper gives the valuation method of he stock value of he company, and introduces the real-option method with comparing he problems of traditional methods, as well as he applicable situation, problems and solutions. Then, we consider the real option model of he company's equity value evaluation, which includes he concept of fuzzy sets, and considering he results of existent real options theory research, basing on he method of he B-S formula to the real option pricing, considering the expected cash flow income of the company is a forecast value. After that, by using fuzzy set theory, a new real option pricing model is proposed, which transforms expert interval evaluation into normal fuzzy number and constructs weight vector by using lattice degree of nearness.In this paper, we select listed new third board market companies in 2015 as a case, and get he financial statements and the daily closing price of 2015 by using the 'choice' software and 'flush' software. Next, we apply the normal fuzzy number of real option method to assess the company's equity value. What the difference from the traditional real option method is, in this paper, we choose a corresponding interval as the interval of the subject matter of assets, which is more practical. Finally, we chooses 31 listed companies in the new third board market to calculate their equity value and the theoretical value of circulating stock price based on the real option model of he normal fuzzy number. The results show that he theoretical value (intrinsic value) of he circulating stock, calculated by this model, have a certain guiding effect to he market price.