Risk And Management Of Housing Reverse Mortgage Endowment Insurance

For solving the problem of population aging and making the more old people to enjoy the welfare policy, this article is based on the decision of China Insurance Regulatory Commission that the housing reverse mortgage endowment insurance would be available nationwide on the basis of the existing four pilot cities. Therefore, this article analyzes housing reverse mortgage endowment insurance all over the country. In the current pilots, policy-holder hold that longevity risk and he housing value volatility risk is controversial, so the article focuses on longevity risk and housing value fluctuation risk.First of all, the housing reverse mortgage endowment insurance are described in the article. The housing reverse mortgage endowment insurance characteristics are introduced. The article analyzes that the housing reverse mortgage endowment insurance is different from general endowment insurance. The article summaries the general law of development of housing reverse mortgage endowment insurance.Then this article gives a brief introduction of the housing reverse mortgage endowment insurance, the risk of the housing reverse mortgage endowment insurance include longevity risk, housing value fluctuation risk, moral hazard and adverse selection, liquidity risk. This article compares the prediction model with several kinds of mortality rate and housing value prediction. Compared with other mortality prediction models, the article forecasts the mortality rate by age, it uses Lee-Carter model to forecast people's mortality rate between 0-84 year-old, and it uses the Coale -Kiser model to forecast people's mortality rate date above 84 year-old. Compared with other housing value prediction models, it uses random walk model to forecast housing value fluctuation rate.Furthermore the article introduces a pricing model of housing reverse mortgage endowment insurance pricing model according to the actuarial present value of realized value of house be equal with actuarial present value of the cash flow of the payment. It operates in the different situation. For both sides of husband and wife jointly owned property of the house, it uses the copulas connect function to calculate the mortality rate,to strengthen the research of double life insurance.Finally, the article gives the suggestion of risk management of the housing reverse mortgage endowment insurance. It has revising interest rate reinsurance, housing reverse mortgage insurance securitization and building coalitions with other institutions. It can control risk and guard risk to take the above measure.Generally speaking, the research on longevity risk and housing value fluctuation risk of the housing reverse mortgage endowment insurance tells us that the insurance company in the conduct of housing reverse mortgage endowment insurance is at a loss in the case of men, women, a couple. If the expansion of the housing reverse mortgage insurance to the nation, the insurance company must be combined with the government and other institutions to strengthen risk management and make more accurate prediction.This paper probably has four innovation points. The article makes a price and gets the profit for empirical analysis according to the actual situation of our country. The article uses factor analysis method to analyze the longevity risk and housing value fluctuation risk on housing reverse mortgage endowment insurance pension and the profit of housing reverse mortgage endowment insurance. The article forecasts the mortality rate by age, and it uses Lee-Carter model to forecast 0-84 year-old mortality rate, and the Coale-Kiser model to forecast ages above 84 year-old mortality rate. The article uses the copulas connect function to estimate the mutual influence of the couple.