The Impact Of Exchange Rate Changes On The Clothing Trade Between China And The United States

With the development of economic globalization, Chinese trade with the rest of the world's increasingly close. Chinese export trade is given priority to with textile and garment industry, textile and clothing industry is a pillar industry of economy in our country, to our country economic growth, create more employment opportunities and export has a very important role, while the United States clothing imports account for most of Chinese clothing export the international market. Exchange rate is the main way of trade settlement, exchange rate movements affect the clothing trade balance has to be reckoned with. On the one hand, Chinese clothing mainly labor-intensive production mode, mode of production and management idea lags far behind the developed countries, on the other hand, with the constant improvement of the domestic production costs, exchange rate changes will lead to the cost of raw materials from abroad and profits are affected. The current people's rate of exchange rate pricing implemented new mechanism, the yuan against the dollar depreciate significantly, as the fed raising interest rates, under the background of the new exchange rate changes through vector autoregressive model research effect on clothing trade of China and the United States has a new meaning.This article first macro analysis was carried out on the international trade balance between The USA and Chinese, and then selected the appropriate research variable VAR model is established, and explore the factors in the exchange rate changes on the influence of clothing trade balance of China and the United States. Based on vector autoregression model of exchange rate changes of clothing trade balance of China and the United States from 2001 to 2015, selected from the empirical analysis of the RMB against the dollar, Chinese consumer price index (CPI), the us consumer price index (CPI), Chinese GDP, America's GDP and clothing trade balance of China and the United States as the research data, choose the clothing trade balance of FZ, bilateral real exchange rate, real GDP in China and the United States, HL real GDP as the research variables, the empirical analysis based on VAR model, analysis by granger causality test before that exchange rate changes is the granger cause of trade balance between China and The USA, again through the impulse response analysis, the RMB appreciation against the dollar in the short term will be on the narrow clothing trade balance of China and the United States, after the revaluation influence is less than before the revaluation, in the long term trade balance will tend to balance. Chinese real GDP increase will stimulate the clothing trade balance positive development. America's GDP increase in the short term will impact on clothing trade balance of China and the United States appear adverse effect but the weaker. At last, by analysis of variance shows that the clothing trade balance and the bilateral real exchange rate on the clothing biggest variance contribution ratio of the balance of trade, and real GDP in China and the United States equation of real GDP contribution rate is small.In order to eliminate the exchange rate change on adverse impacts on the American apparel trade balance in our country, improve the international competitiveness of garment textiles exports, need respectively from two aspects of government policy and the enterprise itself to improve. Government need to textile and garment industry to create a more favorable internal and external environment, adjust the industrial structure and expanding domestic demand, promote transformation and upgrading of textile and garment industry. Enterprises need to scientific and technological innovation, from a technical and brand, strengthen the cooperation between enterprises, changing the old management concept, promoting the rational flow of factors of production between international, creating world-class brand.