The Research Of Dairy Products Quality Investment Based On Prospect Theory

Several large-scale quality events of the dairy industry not only threaten to the life health and safety of consumers seriously,but also make the imagery status reduced greatly of the domestic dairy brands,and caused irreparable damage to the enterprise itself and the whole industry.Dairy products is closely to people’s life and health,how to ensure and improve the quality of dairy products has caused wide attention of scholars both at home and abroad,and the dairy products quality investment decision-making has important research significance.In order to study the dairy products quality investment decision-making problems,the reasearch is close centering on the quality characteristics of dairy products,following the principle of the quantitative with qualitative analysis methods.Firstly,the thesis uses prospect theory to make qualitative analysis on quality perceiving of consumers and enterprise decision-makers,and builds quality investment decision-making models based on prospect theory and multiple attribute decision-making method to make quantitative analysis on quality investment projects.Firstly,the thesis introduced related concepts and basic theories,then pointed the scientificity and feasibility of quality investment decision-making guiding by prospect theory.According to the reference point effect,framing effect and deterministic utility,the thesis studied how the change of quality reference point,the expression of quality information and the overestimate of small probability influence the consumers’ behavior.On the one hand,it can guide consumers to choose reasonable quality reference point and identify the authenticity of the quality information,on the other hand,it can also take some inspirations to enterprise that how to change the consumers’ quality perception to achieve the purpose of attracting consumers.According to the analysis of how prospect theory affect the enterprise decision-maker,it can be found that the enterprise operating conditions and profitability can affect the reference point setting of decision-makers so that it affect decision-makers’ jugement to the projects quality value.The different expression of the projects framing can lead to a reference reversal phenomenon,thus,the decision-maker will make the wrong decision which is counter to original intention.Therefore,the enterprise managers should be rational as far as possible to make the decisions both quality investment and daily management based on the overall situation.To choose the best enterprise quality investment project,the thesis combines prospect theory and multiple attribute decision-making method,build a quality investment model which based on static reference point resulting from competitive product solutions to solve quality investment decision-making problems which criteria weights are known and existing competitive products.Then build another quality investment model which based on dynamic reference point resulting from other alternatives to solve quality investment decision-making problems which criteria weights are unknown entirely and no competitive products in the market.On the aspect of model inprovements,use comprehensive deviations maximizing weights method and grey correlation degree of the grey system theory to improve the model.The improves make the model more scientific and applicable.At last,the instance analysis of the selection of yogurt quality investment decision-making projects verify the feasibility of the model.