| Since 2008,in the context of the four trillion macro policy,the rapid expansion of the scale of local government financing platform loans,the rapid expansion of local government implicit debt.The Audit Commission in 2013 on government debt to conduct a comprehensive audit,the audit results show that the company’s financing platform has become the largest local government debt borrowing subject.In 2014,with Chinese economic development has entered a new norm,the local government budgetary revenue growth is declining,local government financing platform debt service pressure suddenly increased,the resulting risk gradually.From the beginning of 2014,11 super day debt default,China debt market credit default situation intensified.After the budget law amendment by the "opinions of the State Council on strengthening local government debt management"(No.43)announced that the "opinions" clearly pointed out that to carry out budget management and control the size of local government debt,gradually stripped financing platform for the main functions of government financing,and encourage financing platform companies operating earnings and cash flow(business financing platform)for market transformation.In the context of this policy,the business financing platform is divided into two categories: public and private use of the KMV model and RSM model based on KMV model of public and private financing platform default risk measure,analysis of whether there is a significant difference;and the public and private financing platform credit risk factors respectively.Empirical Study on risk factors of contrast analysis can resolve the financing platform for private credit risk and to provide suggestion for breach of the two.First of all,through the review of the relevant local government financing platform,this article from the local government financing platform,the definition and characteristics of the analysis of the causes of the formation of the debt risk and the performance of the debt risk.Secondly,the operation of the financing platform of default risk measure: one,for listing and financing platform,property due to its listing platform,this paper uses the KMV model to measure the risk of default;default risk measure for private financing platform,this paper based on the KMV model,constructed the regression for unlisted alternative financing platform model(RSM).In the KMV model and the RSM model based on the framework of KMV model,according to the value and volatility of the listed and unlisted assets market rate financing platform,using the Matlab program on the financing platform of the distance to default and the expected default rate estimate.In the empirical analysis,firstly,factors affecting the financing platform risk of default is reviewed,then selects 23 listed and 26 non listed business financing platform from 2010 to 2014 annual data as the research object,makes an empirical study on the influence of the default risk of listed separately and private financing platform factors.Finally,based on the local government financing platform and its characteristic analysis on the empirical analysis of the factors influence the risk of default,and put forward to resolve the private financing platform credit risk that the soft budget constraint theory.Through the empirical analysis of factors affecting default risk measure and its listed and unlisted financing platform,this paper get the following conclusions: the financing platform of the default risk is significantly less than private financing platform;influencing factors of listed and non listed financing platform default risk and its effect has obvious difference.The empirical analysis shows that the influence factors of the default risk of the financing platform mainly includes: total assets,quick ratio,total assets growth rate and the index of corporate governance in the management fee rate;influence factors of private financing platform credit risk mainly includes: asset liability ratio,quick ratio,the growth rate of total assets,corporate governance index the total asset turnover rate,interest rate and local government credit indicators in the financial revenue and expenditure gap ratio.The risk factors affecting the comparative analysis of default of listed and non listed financing platform,we get the following conclusions: including interest rates and the fiscal gap rate,macroeconomic indicators of risk factors for breach of unlisted financing platform;different corporate governance impact on listed and unlisted financing platform risk of default mode.Total assets,quick ratio and the growth rate of total assets of listed and unlisted default risk in financing platform.The empirical results show that the influence factors of listed and non listed financing platform credit risk has the obvious difference,so we can through the unlisted market financing platform to control the risk of default. |
